Pierre Poilievre keeps trashing Justin Trudeau’s climate plan. But where is his — and does it even matter? - Toronto Star

Pierre Poilievre keeps trashing Justin Trudeau’s climate plan. But where is his - and does it even matter? | The Star

MONTREAL—For all the brave talk on both sides of the House of Commons about sitting through the summer, Parliament will almost certainly rise in time for Canada Day.

The annual celebrations will mark the beginning of a season of political uncertainties, including some caused by events outside the control of any of the party leaders.

That starts with a national wildfire epidemic that threatens to exceed Canada’s firefighting capacity. The emergency on the forest-fire front could well stretch over the entire summer season.

As the parties start to figure out their strategies for a general election that may come as early as next spring, what impact, if any, could this latest crisis have on Canada’s political dynamics?

The past week has seen Prime Minister Justin Trudeau once again deliver briefings along the lines of those that were a regular feature of the management of the pandemic.

The wildfires have also fostered the kind of federal-provincial co-operation that blunted party lines over the public health emergency.

Even as the NDP and eventually the Conservatives took to calling for a national firefighting strategy, the premiers of the afflicted provinces seemed to have few complaints about the timeliness of the federal response to date.

What we do know from recent experience is that crisis management tends to favour incumbents at the expense of their opposition critics.

Absent the wildfires and the smoke that expanded their reach, the decision by the Bank of Canada to again hike its prime rate would have seen the affordability issue take top billing in the political conversation. Now climate change is back on the centre of the radar.

Both main parties have cause to ask themselves: for how long?

The CPC has spent three campaigns prosecuting the climate change agenda of the Trudeau government. But while its mantra has kept the party’s base mobilized, it has also, by the account of some of its own candidates, driven away a critical number of suburban and urban voters.

Can the party afford to risk another election bid on a lesser climate plan than that of its Liberal rivals?

On that score, the signals from voters themselves are decisively mixed.

The recent Alberta campaign took place against a backdrop of severe wildfires. In the end, the party least committed to climate change mitigation prevailed. And the recently re-elected Ontario and Quebec governments did not secure their second consecutive victories based on strong environmental records.

One way or another, the economy and the government’s fiscal course will have more pride of place in the next campaign than in the three previous ones.

That presents the CPC with both an opportunity and a challenge.

Pierre Poilievre’s signature promise to eliminate the carbon tax is hardly a panacea to the affordability crisis. Moreover, it is a solution in search of a problem in the many provinces — starting with Quebec and British Columbia — that have their own carbon pricing schemes in place.

Poilievre has already signalled he would maintain the health funding arrangements negotiated by the prime minister with the premiers earlier this year. But what about the child-care agreements all provinces have struck with the federal government or the dental-care program that has just been put in place?

And what, if anything, is the Conservative alternative to the Liberal plan to accelerate the greening of the Canadian economy and ensure some of its key sectors remain competitive with the U.S.?

At some point, the CPC will have to square the circle of its bid to balance the books with the measures required to achieve that goal.

In the real world, no government, regardless of political stripe, is likely to balance the books in the near- to midterm. But that does not mean the next Liberal budget will not need — if only to blunt CPC attacks — to strike a different balance between spending and reining in the deficit than the previous ones.

Finally, is the current Liberal economic team necessarily the one Trudeau will take in the next campaign?

With Finance Deputy Minister Michael Sabia leaving for the corner office at Hydro-Québec, there is a critical vacancy to be filled in the top ranks of the federal civil service.

At the same time, there is more speculation these days about Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s plans for her political future than about the strength of Trudeau’s commitment to lead the party in a fourth campaign.

If Freeland were to move on to other challenges rather than staying put for the potentially make-or-break next budget, she would have to make that move sooner rather than later. The minority status of the government and the economic context do not lend themselves to prolonged periods of personal introspection.

Regardless of what the summer brings on the environmental front, expect the main battle lines between the parties when they return to Parliament in the fall to be drawn on the economic front.

Code of Conduct. The Star does not endorse these opinions.