Palo Alto struggles to reach key climate goal despite progress

Palo Alto leaders approved a climate action workplan for the next two years on Monday night, while simultaneously debating the viability of its ambitious climate goals for 2030 that are proving more out of reach with each passing year.

The city belongs to a small handful of jurisdictions that pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2030, relative to a 1990 baseline measurement, as well as maintain complete carbon neutrality by 2030. Staff presented the most recent data on emissions from 2024 to the council, which showed a marginal decrease from the previous year but still a ways out from the 80% reduction target.

“I think the likelihood that we actually meet that 80×30 goal, I don’t know how optimistic I’m feeling there,” Vice Mayor Greer Stone said. “I love that saying, ‘Shoot for the moon, and even if you miss, you land among the stars,’ and I think we’re doing that here.”

Christine Luong, the city’s sustainability manager, told the council that Palo Alto has reduced its emissions by 50.2% in 2024 compared to the 1990 baseline, despite a 22% increase in the population over those 34 years. Luong explained that it’s the difference between 14.3 metric tons per Palo Altan in 1990 versus 5.9 metric tons in 2024.

She said about one-third of greenhouse gas emissions come from natural gas in buildings, and the remaining two-thirds are from vehicle traffic.

When counting for the city’s natural gas offsets, the reduction in emissions is closer to 66%, Luong added.

While the council overall did not seem optimistic about meeting the 80×30 target, Council member George Lu suggested adjusting the goal to better anticipate reality.

“We want to set goals that are realistic and ambitious, and if we feel that this goal is potentially too ambitious, it allows us to cut ourselves some slack, or it makes accountability for different initiatives more difficult,” he said. 

Council members also discussed the previous Sustainability/Climate Action Plan for 2023-2025, which laid the foundation for the updated 2026-2027 S/CAP that council signed off on Monday night.

With the overarching goal of 80×30 seemingly unattainable, city staff are now focusing on smaller victories. Assistant Utilities Director Jonathan Abendschein told the council that some of the biggest accomplishments from the previous S/CAP were the start of construction on the horizontal levee project, the 2025 wildfire protection plan and the launch of building electrification and electric vehicle charger programs in residential areas.

Some of these funnel directly into goals for the next two years of the workplan, further electrification and reducing emissions from gas and diesel vehicles. So far, the city has been making progress on these fronts primarily through incentives-based programs. But Abendschein confirmed to the council Monday night that relying exclusively on incentives to foster electrification would become too expensive to maintain.

One of the major focuses of the new workplan, which the council approved Monday, is developing new financing strategies. To that end, city staff also commissioned several studies to evaluate different electrification scenarios, which the council officially received as part of the workplan.

“The goal with these cost efficient program models is to help us demonstrate or prove out that these can be attractive in addition to being financially efficient, in hopes that they’ll enable strategies for community-wide electrification that minimize the need for new revenues,” Abendschein said.

Another key part of the new workplan is communication, particularly related to the city’s climate goals. The Palo Alto 2025 Community Survey released in January revealed that just one in seven Palo Alto residents feel extremely or very familiar with climate policy goals such as home electrification. Only one in 20 residents reported feeling extremely or very familiar with the 80×30 metric specifically.

“People do feel a certain amount of pride in living in Palo Alto, and it would be wonderful if they would know what a good job we have been doing, and encourage people to do more of that work,” said longtime resident Debbie Mytels. “Let’s keep up the good work and let’s spend more attention on publicity, and I think that will help us change the needle and move where we need to go.”

Mayor Vicki Veenker and Council member Pat Burt tinkered with the language of the communications plan, including a specific directive to work on outreach similar to San Mateo County. Veenker also specified that the communication effort should focus on “incentivizing behavior toward meeting our climate action goals,” and Burt added language to that outreach should emphasize the health risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions.

“There are so many fingerprints on this from all the right people,” Council member Ed Lauing said. “The staff, the (Utilities Advisory Commission), the Sustainability Committee and so on, it’s been a community effort to get to where we are.”