Our climate change casualties

A distressing 2,700 people died from heat-related causes during May and June’s record hot spells in England and Wales alone as climate change makes heatwaves more deadly, experts estimate.

Researchers from Imperial College London, the Met Office and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) estimated that there were at least 2,700 excess deaths in England and Wales over the two recent heatwaves.

And they found that climate change significantly drove up the death toll, as more than two fifths died as a result of the extra heat caused by human activity – mostly burning fossil fuels.

Temperatures

Their study, which used peer-reviewed methods to deliver near rapid estimates of deaths, examined the periods around the record-breaking heatwaves of May, when temperatures peaked at 35.1C, and June, which hit new highs for the month of above 37C, accompanied by high humidity.

The analysis used weather data, climate models and heat-related deaths research to estimate the number of people who died in the heatwaves, and compare it to how many lives would have been lost in a climate that had not been warmed by human activities.

The analysis found about 550 people are estimated to have died because of heat-related causes in nine days of the May heatwave, and about 2,200 in the 11 days around the June heatwave in England and Wales.

Around 59 per cent of the deaths in May, some 327 people, and 38 per cent, some 825 people, of those in June could be attributed to the extra heat caused by climate change, they found.

The researchers warn maximum daytime temperatures are around 3C-4C hotter than they would be without climate change, raising the risks from the heat.

Extreme

High temperatures are associated with risks including heat exhaustion, heat stroke, stress on the heart and kidneys and worsening chronic conditions such as heart disease, lung conditions and diabetes. They also worsen mental health, violence and increase the risk of death from drowning.

The Met Office’s Dr Mark McCarthy described the two record-breaking heatwaves as “exceptional”.

He said heatwave thresholds were rarely met in May, but this year daytime temperatures were widely 15C above the average for the month in England and Wales, while night-time temperature records were also set.

The June heatwave, which saw red warnings for extreme heat issued on consecutive days, was notable for its humidity as well as heat, he said.

“They were extreme heatwaves for the UK, and for all parts of western Europe, and they’re particularly exceptional for the timing and how early in the year they occurred.

Woke

“This combination of extreme daytime heat, high humidity and hot nights all act to really contribute and increase the impact these heatwaves have on our infrastructure, on transport, agriculture and particularly on our health and well being,” he said.