Numbers Report – September 26, 2025

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers. 

Let’s take a look. 

OPEC+ Unwinds Cuts, But Real Output Trails Promises

OPEC+ countries have agreed to unwind the first tranche of 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts and have already started to bring back supply from the second tranche of cuts; however, the actual extent of output hikes remains mired in mystery. Between April and August, OPEC+ was supposed to bring back 1.92 million b/d of production; however, analysts believe that the actual returning supply was some 500,000 b/d less.Partly this is due to Kazakhstan and Iraq still struggling to make good on their previous bouts of overproduction, being restricted by so-called compensation cuts – for instance, Baghdad has pledged to curb output by an additional 130,000 b/d of oil. OPEC+ is poised to raise production by 547,000 b/d in September and a further 137,000 b/d in October; however, limited spare capacity will restrict most members in adding new volumes. Industry analysts anticipate that OPEC’s spare capacity will fall to 2 million b/d by September 2026, potentially amplifying the supply disruptions of the upcoming years.   California Refinery Shutdowns Open Door for Asian Export Surge

The closure of two Californian…

Numbers Report – September 26, 2025

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers. 

Let’s take a look. 

1. OPEC+ Unwinds Cuts, But Real Output Trails Promises

• OPEC+ countries have agreed to unwind the first tranche of 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts and have already started to bring back supply from the second tranche of cuts; however, the actual extent of output hikes remains mired in mystery. 
• Between April and August, OPEC+ was supposed to bring back 1.92 million b/d of production; however, analysts believe that the actual returning supply was some 500,000 b/d less.
• Partly this is due to Kazakhstan and Iraq still struggling to make good on their previous bouts of overproduction, being restricted by so-called compensation cuts – for instance, Baghdad has pledged to curb output by an additional 130,000 b/d of oil. 
• OPEC+ is poised to raise production by 547,000 b/d in September and a further 137,000 b/d in October; however, limited spare capacity will restrict most members in adding new volumes. 
• Industry analysts anticipate that OPEC’s spare capacity will fall to 2 million b/d by September 2026, potentially amplifying the supply disruptions of the upcoming years.  

2. California Refinery Shutdowns Open Door for Asian Export Surge

• The closure of two Californian refineries over the next 6 months could provide a much-needed lifeline to East Asian refiners that have been struggling to remain competitive against China’s vast downstream expansion. 
• Phillips 66’s 140,000 b/d Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles is expected to halt operations by the end of this month, with San Francisco’s very own Benicia refinery (145,000 b/d capacity) following suit in April 2026.
• Slashing the US Pacific Coast’s refining capacity by 18%, the refinery closures will also push South Korean, Japanese and Thai refiners to fill the ensuing supply vacuum. 
• South Korea, wielding a refined product surplus of 1 million b/d, has been exporting roughly 350,000 b/d of gasoline in recent years and has made already started to ramp up its flows to California in 2025 to date. 
• The Golden State continues to have the most expensive gasoline prices in all the United States (Hawaii and Alaska included), averaging $4.65 per gallon as of September 26.

3. China Eyes Discounted Iranian Crude as Sanctions Snap Back

• After European nations triggered snapback sanctions on Iran, ending the last 10 years’ JCPOA diplomacy track and re-introducing EU sanctions on Tehran, Chinese refiners rub their hands in anticipation. 
• Averaging 1.5 million b/d last year, Iranian exports have trended around 1.6 million b/d in 2025 to date and now that Syria is no longer politically allied with Tehran, all Iranian exports end up ultimately in China. 
• Cognizant of the one-market dependence, Iran’s national oil company NIOC has been selling its benchmark Iranian Light grade to China at a discount of $6.50 per barrel to ICE Brent futures, the widest discount in more than a year. 
• China’s independent refiners across the province of Shandong have been running their plants at 68-70% utilization rates due to low margins, so the cheaper Iranian crude will get, the bigger the temptation to buy more of it. 

4. Refinery Closures and Export Rush Leave US Distillates Exposed

   

   
   

• The US is increasingly facing a period of winter distillate tightness, with the Energy Information Administration predicting 2025 year-end inventories to be the lowest in more than a decade. 
• The first half of 2025 has seen a sharp drawdown in diesel stocks across the country, shedding some 22 million barrels, just as supply of renewable diesel was lagging. 
• Moreover, the closure of four European refineries prompted US exporters to ship as much diesel as possible across the Atlantic, with both June and July seeing 1.2 million b/d of outflows. 
• US distillate inventories have been trending below the 5-year average for most of June-August, currently assessed at 123 million barrels, with the EIA not seeing any incremental stock builds throughout Q4 2025. 
• The Atlantic Coast and California are shaping up to be the most vulnerable regions during winter months, with the latter losing some 285,000 b/d of refining capacity.

5. Russia Extends Gasoline Export Ban as Drone Strikes Cripple Refineries

• Amidst incessant Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, Moscow has announced that its ongoing gasoline export ban will be extended until the end of the year, simultaneously tightening diesel export rules. 
• Russia accounted for some 12% of global diesel trade in 2024, exporting some 900,000 b/d, however its outflows in August averaged only 690,000 b/d in August and are poised to decline further this month. 
• Over the last three months, some 20 refineries were targeted by Ukrainian drones, taking off some 1.0-1.2 million b/d of refining capacity from the country’s total of 6.5 million b/d. 
• As opposed to diesel, Russia’s gasoline balance is much tighter, and recent drone strikes on refineries in southern regions have led to fuel shortages in Crimea and the breakaway regions of Donbass and Lugansk. 
• The gasoline export ban doesn’t apply for deliveries under intergovernmental agreements, meaning deliveries to Kazakhstan, Belarus or Kyrgyzstan will remain unaffected. 

6. South Africa Opens Up to Private Investment in Bid to Rescue Coal Exports

• The South African government has allowed private companies to invest into its logistics sector, providing a potential lifeline for the country’s coal exports. 
• Acting through its rail and pipeline transport operator Transnet, South Africa shortlisted 11 companies to gain access to six commodity evacuation corridors for a period of up to 10 years, seeking to reduce the strain on the embattled state-owned firm. 
• The move is widely expected to increase utilization rates within South Africa’s rail network and expand capacity, with the country’s main coal exporters Menar and Exxaro embracing the changes. 
• Having exported a whopping 80 million tonnes of coal in 2018, South Africa’s supplies shrank in COVID years to just 60 million tonnes in 2023-2024, so far keeping the same pace in January-September of this year.  
• Lengthy disruptions on South Africa’s rail line, frequent disruptions in the country’s port operations have led to Asian buyers preferring Russian or Indonesian coal due to their predictability.

7. Deadly Mudslide at World’s No. 2 Mine Sends Copper Soaring

• Copper futures are set for their largest weekly gain since June, with the LME three-month contract jumping above $10,300 per metric tonne as the world’s second-largest mine halted production. 
• US mining giant Freeport-McMoran declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, after a flow of about 800,000 metric tonnes of mud slid into the mine’s underground levels, killing two employees. 
• Shares of Freeport dropped by 20% since the incident was reported, wiping off almost $10 billion from the company’s market cap. 
• Grasberg accounted for 3.2% of mined copper globally, representing 30% of Freeport’s total copper production and 70% of its gold output. 
• Citibank lowered its 2025 production guidance for Grasberg from 680,000 tonnes to 500,000 tonnes, simultaneously slashing its 2026 outlook by 250,000 tonnes (to 500,000 tonnes). 

That’s it for this week’s Numbers Report. Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you next week.