OPEC Is Hunting for Market Share
Leaving Price Targets in the Past, OPEC+ Is Hunting for Market Share
The upcoming OPEC+ meeting, initially planned for July 6 but subsequently moved a day earlier citing the Muslim holy day of Ashura, is set to see another expedited 411,000 b/d output increase as the oil group seeks to regain market share.
OPEC+’s market share has been above 30% throughout the 2010s, dipping below that threshold only from Q4 2019 onwards (currently 27%), but Riyadh and other oil-dependent economies are now willing to risk a period of lower prices.
According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, OPEC boosted crude production in June by 360,000 b/d to an average of 28 million b/d, with most of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabian oil exports last month increased by more than all of OPEC+’s returning production, adding 441,000 b/d month-on-month, whilst outflows from Kuwait were the highest since late 2023.
Pessimistic and Disappointed – The US Shale Executives Today
The Q2 2025 drilling activity survey conducted by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank indicates drilling activity across the country is on the decline, with oil executives expressing their disappointment with Donald Trump’s oil policy.
Bemoaning the Trump administration’s focus to get oil prices to $50 per barrel, even though breakeven prices for new wells stand at $62-64 per barrel, oil companies are currently seeing 4-6% cost hikes due to recently announced steel…
Leaving Price Targets in the Past, OPEC+ Is Hunting for Market Share
The upcoming OPEC+ meeting, initially planned for July 6 but subsequently moved a day earlier citing the Muslim holy day of Ashura, is set to see another expedited 411,000 b/d output increase as the oil group seeks to regain market share.
OPEC+’s market share has been above 30% throughout the 2010s, dipping below that threshold only from Q4 2019 onwards (currently 27%), but Riyadh and other oil-dependent economies are now willing to risk a period of lower prices.
According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, OPEC boosted crude production in June by 360,000 b/d to an average of 28 million b/d, with most of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabian oil exports last month increased by more than all of OPEC+’s returning production, adding 441,000 b/d month-on-month, whilst outflows from Kuwait were the highest since late 2023.
Pessimistic and Disappointed – The US Shale Executives Today
The Q2 2025 drilling activity survey conducted by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank indicates drilling activity across the country is on the decline, with oil executives expressing their disappointment with Donald Trump’s oil policy.
Bemoaning the Trump administration’s focus to get oil prices to $50 per barrel, even though breakeven prices for new wells stand at $62-64 per barrel, oil companies are currently seeing 4-6% cost hikes due to recently announced steel tariffs.
The DFRB’s oil business activity index turned negative from +3.8 in Q1 to -8.1 in Q2 2025, with half of the south’s drilling executives planning to drill less than planned in 2025, whilst 26% reported significant cuts to upstream operations.
The US Energy Information Administration now expects the country’s oil output to average 13.415 million b/d in 2025 before declining to 13.372 million b/d next year, whilst S&P Global predicts an even steeper fall to 12.96 million b/d in 2026.
Wildfires Loom Large for Canada’s Oil Sands Producers
Canadian wildfires are rearing their ugly head again after a blaze emerged in the Fort McMurray area, the largest oil sands production hub in Alberta, threatening oil supply.
Official statistics show that May oil production in Alberta was the lowest since May 2023, averaging 3.61 million b/d as several producers in the Cold Lake area were prompted to cut 350,000 b/d of output in late May-early June.
Seaborne flows from the TMX pipeline have been posted three consecutive month-on-month declines as available volumes falter, with only 380,000 b/d exported last month
As Canada’s upstream firms struggle to ramp up output, prices of Canadian heavy grades continue to rise – the discount of WCS to US benchmark West Texas Intermediate in Houston is the smallest since early 2022.
US Dry Gas Production Hits New Record on Summer Heat
The all-American heatwave in late June prompted US natural gas producers to churn out as much dry gas as possible, with June 29 marking the highest ever recorded output of 107 BCf/d.
With LNG feedgas demand recovering after a month-long maintenance at Sabine Pass LNG and almost all the United States seeing hotter-than-average temperatures (except the Midwest and Alaska), heightened production rates are set to continue.
US gas-to-power consumption is set to soar to 46 BCf/d by mid-month after a relatively cool start to July, potentially charting an upwards move compared to the June average of 38.8 BCf/d and restricting summer inventory builds.
Consistently robust gas production has been depressing prompt Henry Hub gas futures, currently trading around $3.4 per mmBtu, below the $3.66 per mmBtu average of H1 2025.
Copper Markets Roil on Trump Speculation Again
For the umpteenth time this year, the specter of US import tariffs has been sending copper prices into disarray, with the benchmark three-month LME contract hitting a three-month high of $10,020 per metric tonne earlier this week.
Whilst a weaker dollar should support industrial metals going forward, the markets are still undecided whether US copper imports would see any substantial impact from upcoming tariff warfare.
US copper inventories have been increasing since March, with COMEX stocks reaching 220,950 short tonnes — the highest in seven years – after continuous inflows of the metal.
In contrast to the US, inventories in LME-registered warehouses are a third of what they were in January 2025, with a high probability of a short squeeze happening soon as reportedly one buyer held the right to purchase 50-60% of all available copper in the LME network.
Egypt Struggles to Cut Its Dependence on Israeli Gas
Perhaps no other country had seen as much collateral damage from the Israel-Iran conflict as Egypt, as halted Israeli pipeline flows forced Cairo to go on an LNG- and fuel oil-buying spree to cover its energy needs.
Egypt imported 230,000 b/d of fuel oil in June, the second-highest monthly reading in history, whilst its 160-cargo monster LNG deal with several suppliers provided a rare bullish moment to gas markets in the Atlantic Basin last month.
With domestic gas production falling as the giant Zohr field gets depleted, the Israel-Iran conflict only highlighted Egypt’s dependence on Israel to keep the lights on – aggravated by the fact that gas from the Leviathan field costs EGAS half the global market price.
Most Egyptian fertilizer producers have restarted their production after Israeli gas flows to the country normalized on June 26-27, with at least 5 mtpa urea production capacity halted during the 12-Day War.
Platinum Becomes Top Commodity of June
Platinum has become the star performer of June, rising 28% in just one month amidst increasing interest from hedge funds and speculators, capitalizing on ‘exceptionally’ weak South African production.
China has also played its role in the platinum price rally after Beijing’s imports remained above 10 metric tonnes per month throughout Q2, the first such occasion in years.
Platinum’s success, with prices rising to an 11-year high of $1,432 per ounce, will soon trigger the metal’s demise as its interchangeable peer palladium is now 22% cheaper, prompting many to look for the cheaper alternative.
Similarly, US President Trump’s tariff warfare is a downside for platinum – the usual catalyst in automotive converters – as car producers’ projections indicate global automotive output could drop by 10 million units in 2025-2028 compared to previous forecasts.