Only 3 years left: new study warns the clock is ticking to avoid climate disaster

The bad news about climate change keeps coming. Across Africa, the crisis is hitting hard, with extreme weather destroying livelihoods and reshaping entire communities.

We now live on a planet warming faster than at any point since records began — and yet, governments are still dragging their feet.

The next global climate summit, COP30, is just months away. Under the UN framework, all 197 member nations were expected to submit updated climate plans back in February. These national pledges outline how each country will cut emissions of greenhouse gases in line with the legally binding Paris Agreement — the landmark accord that commits the world to keeping temperature rise below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

At COP30, nations will also be required to present new action plans detailing how they intend to adapt to worsening climate impacts.

So far, however, only 25 countries — representing about 20% of global emissions — have delivered their updated commitments. In Africa, only Somalia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have done so, leaving 172 nations still behind.

These national plans, known as nationally determined contributions, are critical for setting short- and medium-term targets. They provide a roadmap for policy, investment, and long-term planning. Aligning these efforts with global development goals could lift as many as 175 million people out of poverty.

Yet only one plan so far — the United Kingdom’s — actually aligns with the Paris Agreement.

We are climate scientists, and one of us (Piers Forster) leads the international team behind the annual Global Climate Change Indicators Report, which tracks the state of Earth’s climate system. Using global emissions data, the report measures how greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere, how surface temperatures are rising, and how much of that warming is human-caused.

It also examines extreme weather — including spikes in temperature and rainfall — along with sea-level rise and the remaining “carbon budget,” or the total CO₂ humanity can emit before the planet exceeds 1.5°C of warming. Staying within that limit is essential to avoid the most severe consequences of climate change.

Our latest findings show that human-driven warming reached 1.36°C in 2024, pushing the global average temperature (including natural variation) to 1.52°C. Put simply, the world has already crossed a threshold where major climate disruption is unavoidable. We are, beyond question, in dangerous territory.

Our dangerously hot planet

Last year’s temperatures weren’t just high — they were historic. The data make that painfully clear. Persistent record-breaking emissions have driven atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide to unprecedented levels.

The result: a rapid depletion of the remaining carbon budget — the finite amount of greenhouse gases humanity can still emit before overshooting the 1.5°C mark. At the current pace, that allowance will be gone in less than three years.

We must face reality: the window to stay below 1.5°C is effectively closed. Even if we manage to cool things later, the journey back will be long and difficult.

Meanwhile, climate extremes continue to intensify, bringing mounting human and economic costs. Africa, in particular, is enduring its deadliest climate disaster in more than a decade.

Imagine trying to run an economy without timely, reliable data. When markets tumble, politicians and business leaders react immediately. None would tolerate outdated reports on profits or sales.

But when it comes to the climate, change is outpacing the data. That makes quick, informed decisions nearly impossible. If we treated climate updates the way we treat financial reports, every new data release would trigger panic. Yet while governments routinely act fast in economic crises, they remain far slower to respond to the warning signs flashing from Earth’s most vital indicators.

What needs to happen next

As more nations finalize their climate plans, world leaders must finally confront the reality of what climate science is telling us.

Governments need rapid access to trustworthy climate data so they can craft timely, evidence-based action plans. Those plans must also take a global view — one rooted in fairness. Wealthier nations, which have historically emitted the most greenhouse gases, must lead the way by setting more ambitious reduction targets and providing financial support to help developing countries decarbonize and adapt.

In Africa, the UN will host Climate Week in Addis Ababa this September under the UNFCCC framework. Beyond preparing plans for COP30, the gathering will include sessions on climate finance and on ensuring that the transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 is just and equitable. The summit will also assist countries still drafting their national strategies.

If these nationally determined contributions are actually implemented, the rate of global warming could slow — a critical step not only for vulnerable nations and economies but also for the stability of the entire world.

At present, only five members of the G20 — Canada, Brazil, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom — have submitted their 2035 climate plans. Yet the G20 produces about 80% of the world’s emissions. That means South Africa, which currently holds the G20 presidency, has a key opportunity to push the group to help developing nations finance their transition toward cleaner, low-carbon economies.

Even so, another troubling sign has emerged: just 10 submitted plans have reaffirmed or strengthened commitments to phase out fossil fuels. This makes the climate roadmaps of the European Union, China, and India critical to maintaining momentum and keeping the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target within reach. Many countries are waiting to see what these three major powers decide before filing their own national plans.

The data in our latest report helps the global community understand not only where we’ve been, but where we’re heading.

We can only hope that the world’s governments — especially the biggest emitters — will deliver ambitious, credible pledges well before COP30. Doing so would close the gap between recognizing the climate crisis and taking decisive action to confront it. Every single ton of carbon matters.