Oil Traders Lurch From Praying for Volatility to Drowning in It

Until recently, oil traders complained that it was almost impossible to wring profits out of a listless and rangebound crude market. After the events of the past two-and-a-half weeks, this may have been a case of “careful what you wish for.”

In that brief period, the oil market went from flatlining to experiencing huge price moves. The trigger was US President Donald Trump’s April 2 unveiling of sweeping tariffs, escalating a trade war. Less than a day later, OPEC+ stunned markets with plans to boost output at a faster-than-anticipated rate. The dual shocks sent US crude futures down almost 7% for the biggest decline since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while a key gauge of volatility rocketed to a six-month high.