Oil News: Can a Bullish Catalyst Offset Tariffs, OPEC+ Uncertainty, and Rising Supply?

This move could complicate OPEC+’s efforts to manage supply. The group is still debating whether to raise output in April or extend production curbs. If Iraq continues increasing exports beyond its quota, it could weaken OPEC+ discipline and weigh further on prices.

U.S. Tariffs Cloud Demand Outlook

Traders are also adjusting positions in response to heightened tariff risks. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% duty on Chinese imports starting March 4. These measures raise inflation concerns and could slow global demand, adding to crude oil’s bearish outlook.

“Market participants are scaling back risk exposure as they assess the broader impact of U.S. trade policy,” noted Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. While the full demand impact remains uncertain, investors are already pricing in downside risk.

OPEC+ Policy Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge

OPEC+ faces a critical decision in April as it weighs whether to increase production. The group is struggling to interpret shifting supply and demand trends, leading to speculation that it may delay scheduled output hikes to support prices.