Big Oil Pumps the Brakes on Buybacks, Not Barrels

The world’s leading oil companies are moving ahead with output expansions, brushing aside oversupply concerns on the heels of OPEC+ unwinding and largely disappointing Q3 earnings.France’s TotalEnergies kicked off the Q3 earnings call season, with adjusted net income falling 2% year-over-year to $4 billion, whilst ExxonMobil’s net income fell by an even steeper 12% to $7.55 billion. Apart from OPEC+ countries, US oil majors have also contributed to oversupply concerns in 2026, with ExxonMobil and Chevron respectively adding 1.2 million b/d and 0.9 million b/d of incremental output since 2021. According to Bloomberg, the five global supermajors will post combined profits of $21.8 billion in Q3, a 7% increase from the previous three months thanks to higher refining margins.Rising debt has been at the forefront of earnings call, with BP, Chevron and Exxon cutting 17,000 jobs combined, and most supermajors already telegraphing a notable slowdown in 2026 buybacks. Alberta’s Oil Sands: Cleaner by the Barrel, Dirtier by the Ton

Canada is facing a greenhouse gas dilemma amidst increasing oil sands production – the intensity of Alberta’s output keeps on decreasing even though total emissions continue to rise. S&P Global estimates that Canada’s absolute oil-driven emissions rose to 85 million mtCO2e last year, up 1 mtCO2e, almost double its emissions in 2010. The average intensity of the Canadian oil sands was 57 kgCO2e/b,…

1. Big Oil Pumps the Brakes on Buybacks, Not Barrels

• The world’s leading oil companies are moving ahead with output expansions, brushing aside oversupply concerns on the heels of OPEC+ unwinding and largely disappointing Q3 earnings.
• France’s TotalEnergies kicked off the Q3 earnings call season, with adjusted net income falling 2% year-over-year to $4 billion, whilst ExxonMobil’s net income fell by an even steeper 12% to $7.55 billion. 
• Apart from OPEC+ countries, US oil majors have also contributed to oversupply concerns in 2026, with ExxonMobil and Chevron respectively adding 1.2 million b/d and 0.9 million b/d of incremental output since 2021. 
• According to Bloomberg, the five global supermajors will post combined profits of $21.8 billion in Q3, a 7% increase from the previous three months thanks to higher refining margins.
• Rising debt has been at the forefront of earnings call, with BP, Chevron and Exxon cutting 17,000 jobs combined, and most supermajors already telegraphing a notable slowdown in 2026 buybacks.

2. Alberta’s Oil Sands: Cleaner by the Barrel, Dirtier by the Ton

• Canada is facing a greenhouse gas dilemma amidst increasing oil sands production – the intensity of Alberta’s output keeps on decreasing even though total emissions continue to rise. 
• S&P Global estimates that Canada’s absolute oil-driven emissions rose to 85 million mtCO2e last year, up 1 mtCO2e, almost double its emissions in 2010. 
• The average intensity of the Canadian oil sands was 57 kgCO2e/b, the highest reading globally, compared to 11 kgCO2e/b in Saudi Arabia, 27 kgCO2e/b in Russia and even 55 kgCO2e/b in Venezuela. 
• Most carbon intensity reductions in Canada came from improvements in open-pit mining operations and steam-assisted gravity drainage. 
• Canada’s upstream growth has slowed in 2025 to date, with Jan-Aug averaging 4.04 million b/d, up a mere 15,000 b/d from a year ago despite expectations of output growing 150-200,000 b/d this year. 

3. Is This the Breakout Moment for Copper? 

• A respite in US-China trade tension fuelled another spectacular copper rally this week, with LME prices hitting an all-time high of $11,200 per metric tonne on Wednesday, up 25% since the beginning of 2025. 
• Copper still suffers from wide regional discrepancies after the threat of Trump tariffs on the transition metal led to a huge outflow of copper inventories from Asia and Europe towards the US. 
• LME copper inventories have been consistently falling for the past three months, currently tallying 135,000 tonnes. 
• Supply woes have also fuelled bullish sentiment, with Anglo American lowering its 2025 guidance on Chilean underperformance, only weeks after Freeport’s Grasberg suffered a fatal mudslide. 
• Against this background, Morgan Stanley predicts copper will face its most severe supply deficit in 22 years, with demand surpassing production by a hefty 1 million tonnes.

4. Taiwan Goes Full Gas: Nuclear Exit Sparks LNG Import Frenzy

• Taiwan is becoming the main driver of spot LNG demand in Asia, having decommissioned its last nuclear plant in May and turning towards gas to compensate for missing power generation. 
• Taiwan has imported 20 million tonnes of LNG this year to date, with its current pace of imports exceeding last year’s total of 21.8 million tonnes. 
• October 2025 will mark another all-time high in Taiwanese LNG imports – at 2.18 million tonnes – surpassing the previous record set in August. 
• Since quitting nuclear, 87% of Taiwan’s power generation is coming from fossil sources, well above Asia’s average of 62%, with natural gas emerging in pole position amidst declining coal output.
• Taiwan tried to reverse its nuclear phaseout by holding a referendum in August to restart the decommissioned 1.9 GW Maanshan plant, however a low 29% turnout derailed that motion. 

5. Battery Boom Powers Lithium Comeback as EV Craze Cools Off

• For many months struggling to break even, lithium producers across the world are now finding support from large-scale battery storage, replacing the previous years’ EV craze. 
• Chinese authorities support the installation of energy storage systems (ESS) to stabilize electricity grids, with Beijing aiming to have more than 180 GW of battery capacity by 2027. 
• The energy storage expansion plan for 2025-2027, as stipulated by China’s top planner NDRC, will cost $35 billion.
• Lithium carbonate futures traded on China’s Guangzhou exchange have surged above ¥80,000 per metric tonne ($11,400/mt) this week, with the entirety of 2026 now trading above that threshold. 
• Lithium could see further support from production curbs in China as CATL’s Yichun mine is yet to restart operations after seeing its permit suspended in August. 

6. Saudi’s Export Surge Sets the Scene for OPEC+ Sunday Showdown

• As OPEC+ member countries are set to meet online this Sunday to discuss their joint production quota for December 2025, market fundamentals are increasingly pointing towards oversupply.
• Saudi Arabia’s crude exports have been trending at 6.5 million b/d in both September and October, having averaged 6 million b/d in H1 2025, and more crude is expected to flow towards buyers as Riyadh winds down crude burn. 
• Higher supply has saturated Asian markets, drastically easing the curve of backwardation in Dubai futures that set Saudi Arabia’s Asian prices – setting the stage for a hefty cut for December. 
• Kuwait has added to supply pressures by selling an extra 3 million barrels after its main refining asset, the 615,000 b/d Al Zour refinery, went down last week. 
• Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s real GDP posted its highest growth rate in more than two years, growing by 5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with oil rising by an even more impressive 8.2% from a year ago.

7. China’s Solar Installations Hit a Q3 Speed Bump

• China’s solar installations have ground to a sharp halt in Q3, with utility companies adding only 9.7 GW incremental capacity in September, only a marginal hike compared to a three-year low recorded in August. 
• The end of tariff subsidies guaranteed by Beijing, coming into effect June 1, resulted in most companies frontloading installations into the first half of 2025, seeing only meagre activity now. 
• Wielding total capacities of 1.13 TW for solar and 580 GW for wind, this was still enough to meet China’s incremental electricity demand this year, seeing both coal and hydro decrease.
• Growing polysilicon prices present a pricing upside and demand risk for solar installations, however this could be offset by pressures coming from protectionist measures globally, targeting specifically China’s solar exports. 
• China currently accounts for 21% of global renewable energy generation, even if clean power sources inside the country only represent 15% of its primary energy production.