N.Y. Gov. Hochul releases climate change projections for the state: Devastating impact of storms, extreme hea - SILive.com

N.Y. Gov. Hochul releases climate change projections for the state: Devastating impact of storms, extreme heat, flooding - silive.com

Governor Kathy Hochul has announced the release of the technical chapters of the Understanding and Preparing for Our Changing Climate Study, led by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA).

The study was a collaboration among academic institutions, science organizations, municipalities, community leaders, industry representatives, and NYS agencies. The portion of the study focused on climate change projections for New York State that was released in January included updated data on how the climate has changed and how it will continue to change.

“New Yorkers know too well the devastating impact of storms, extreme heat and flooding due to our changing climate,” Governor Hochul said. “We are arming New Yorkers, businesses, municipalities and industries with the information and tools needed to improve community adaptation and resilience while continuing to lower emissions.”

The multi-year scientific study, which advances the 2024 State of the State initiative to enhance statewide resiliency and preparedness for the impacts of climate change, supports the implementation of the State’s nation-leading Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act.

The technical chapters provide in-depth, detailed observations and projected impacts of climate change on eight sectors: agriculture, buildings, ecosystems, energy, human health and safety, society and economy, transportation, and water resources.

The forecasts, led by Columbia University, delve into temperature, precipitation, extreme occurrences, and sea level changes. They are formulated through computer simulations that analyze the reactions of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans to the accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

FIVE KEY FINDINGS

New York State’s changing climate has already undergone transformation, with projections indicating that these changes will persist and, in certain instances, intensify throughout the 21st century. There have been observed and anticipated shifts across various meteorological factors, beginning with both average and extreme air temperatures, and extending to their impacts on precipitation patterns, and extreme weather occurrences. Below are five key findings.

Key Finding 1: Temperatures in New York State have risen since the early 20th century, with projections indicating continued increases throughout the 21st century. The state’s warming exceeds the national average, particularly evident in winter. Heat waves are expected to become more frequent and intense, posing risks to health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. New York City will likely remain the warmest area, while northern regions will also experience significant temperature rises and extreme heat events.

Key Finding 2: New York State has experienced increases in total precipitation and heavy precipitation events, and these trends will continue through the end of this century. Heavy rainstorms that lead to flooding are projected to become more frequent across the state. Precipitation is expected to increase the most in winter. Lake-effect snowfall is projected to increase over the next few decades, but as temperatures continue to rise, more winter precipitation near the Great Lakes will fall as rain. Elsewhere in the state, snowfall and snowpack are likely to decrease with warmer winter temperatures.

Key Finding 3: New York State anticipates rising total precipitation and heavy rainfall incidents, a trend projected to persist until the century’s end. Flood-inducing heavy rainstorms are forecasted to escalate statewide. Winter will likely witness the most substantial precipitation surge. While lake-effect snowfall is expected to rise initially, warmer temperatures will gradually shift winter precipitation near the Great Lakes from snow to rain. Conversely, other regions may experience diminished snowfall and snowpack due to warmer winter conditions.

Key Finding 4: Sea surface temperature, sea level, and coastal flooding are increasing along New York State’s coast, with temperatures rising faster locally than the global average. Sea levels have surged nearly 1 foot in the past century and are projected to rise by 1 to 2 feet by mid-century, exacerbating chronic flooding in low-lying areas. Ocean acidity is also rising due to carbon dioxide absorption, though stormwater runoff currently contributes more to coastal water acidity in New York.

Key Finding 5: New York State’s lakes and rivers are facing rising water temperatures, fluctuating levels, and dwindling ice cover, all expected to worsen in a warmer, wetter future. Lakes will likely endure harsher summer heat waves and reduced winter ice as temperatures climb. The Great Lakes may see increased variability in water levels due to droughts and heavy precipitation. Flood intensity and damage are forecasted to rise with extreme rainfall and broader shifts in streamflow.