Nuclear Energy Growth in the US: 5 Factors That Will Determine It

Can nuclear energy quench America’s growing thirst for electricity?

A robust American economy, artificial intelligence, and electrification are all contributing to new electric demand that’s expected to grow 9% by 2028. By 2050, electricity demand could rise by 57%.

Much of the new load, including from data centers, AI, and manufacturing, requires significant around-the-clock, firm power. While the rise of renewable energy is helping to add capacity and decarbonize states with climate goals, the intermittency of renewables doesn’t deliver firm power.

Together, these dynamics are contributing to falling electricity reserves across the country, suddenly making nuclear energy—and its firm, around-the-clock, zero-carbon power—a potential part of the solution after decades of decline.

Renewed excitement for nuclear energy started to grow with plants coming back from retirement. At the same time, several big tech companies began announcing contracts with developers of new plant designs, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs).

Should these new investments in nuclear energy come to pass, they could make a dent in the growing electricity demand. But a nuclear renaissance isn’t written in stone. It faces significant challenges and limitations that will determine whether it will expand its role as a core technology underpinning the U.S. energy system.

While nuclear restarts are attractive, their scalability is quite low. Beyond Palisades, the Crane Energy Center, and Duane Arnold, few facilities could feasibly return to service. New technologies and builds are potentially more scalable but come with more technological and market uncertainty as shown in figure 1.