From the North to the Tropics: Why Arctic Adaptation Must Be a COP30 Priority

Arctic Infrastructure at Risk

The Arctic is a landscape built on permafrost, but that foundation is rapidly collapsing. Approximately 70 percent of the current infrastructure in permafrost regions, including homes, roads, pipelines, airports, and energy facilities, is projected to be at risk from near-surface thaw by mid-century. 

More than 3.6 million people live in these high-risk zones. In Russia, 45 percent of Arctic hydrocarbon extraction fields are located on degrading permafrost, threatening energy security and export revenues. Real-world consequences are already visible: in Tuktoyaktuk, airport runways have warped, and in Yakutsk, essential road networks have suffered repeated damage due to ground instability.

These failures are not localized problems; they represent systemic threats to entire Arctic economies. The financial cost of stabilizing or relocating infrastructure is projected to reach tens of billions of dollars over the next three decades.

Yet, no comprehensive global funding mechanism currently targets Arctic-specific adaptation, leaving national and municipal governments to bear the burden.