No Safe Ground: Gaza’s Displaced at the Edge of Climate and Conflict (5 October 2025)

Nearly 1.9 million people in Gaza, over 70% of the population, are now confined to areas with extreme exposure to climate hazards and no functioning infrastructure. The 2025–2026 winter season is forecast to bring 450–500 mm of rain, strong winds, and coastal surges to an environment where sewage ponds are already overflowing, half a million tons of waste (including hazardous medical waste) lie uncollected, and fragile tents are pitched on bare, flood-prone ground.

Vulnerability has risen from 60% before October 2023 to over 90% today, leaving the vast majority of Gaza’s displaced exposed to multihazard risks: flooding, disease outbreaks, hazardous contamination, wind damage, and sea-level rise.

This convergence of conflict-driven displacement and escalating climate threats creates a compound humanitarian emergency. Without urgent, climate-sensitive interventions, early warning systems, safer shelter siting, drainage clearance, and adapted aid delivery, the winter ahead may trigger widespread preventable suffering and public health crises.

Donor engagement is essential now: early action to support adaptation and preparedness will save lives, reduce costs, and prevent Gaza’s displacement crisis from escalating into a climate-driven disaster.

SARI Global provides real-time climate risk analysis and forecasting, supporting donors, agencies, and NGOs with data-driven insights to anticipate hazards, adapt humanitarian response, and safeguard vulnerable populations