New report suggests more global temperature records ahead

The Global Annual-to-Decadal Update also takes a look at the observed climate over the past five years and gives regional predictions for temperatures and precipitation over the next five years.  

Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026–2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, according to the update.

It is very likely (91% chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55 °C above the pre-industrial baseline.

It is likely (75% chance) that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is considered exceptionally unlikely (less than 1%) that any single year will exceed 2°C above the 1850-1900 average in the next five years.

The five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) indicates a tendency towards El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028, it says.

Dr Leon Hermanson is the lead author of the report. He said: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”

The update is produced by the UK’s Met Office in its role as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It provides a synthesis of predictions contributed by 13 different institutes, including four Global Producing Centres: Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the Met Office.

Confidence in forecasts of annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature is high since hindcasts show very high skill.

The 1.5°C (and 2.0°C) levels specified in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years. Individual years with annual global mean temperatures exceeding these levels do not mean that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach. Temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperature approaches these levels.