New energy system models needed to plan for grid of the future, says DOE
Modeling experts from US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory and several other institutions call attention to the need for better energy system models in a recent Nature Energy paper.
Their objective was to inform researchers, regulators, policymakers, industry, and funding agencies about opportunities to enhance the models.
New technologies such as solar power and grid energy storage are being rapidly deployed, and to accommodate these and other technologies, utilities must run electric grids in completely new ways.
The paper focuses specifically on capacity expansion models, which are tools used to simulate future grids and identify optimal investments over multi-year periods.
These models account for a complex set of factors, such as new policies, technology advances, and electricity demand forecasts. Electric utilities use the models in long-term grid planning. Regulators and other governmental agencies use them to evaluate new energy and environmental policies.
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One of the many challenges identified by the paper is that models do not adequately consider state of charge—the amount of energy stored in a battery at a given time.
With visibility into state of charge, grid operators know if storage systems have enough power to meet demand on short notice when wind and solar generation are less than predicted. Models need to be enhanced so that they track changes in state of charge due to evolving grid conditions.
According to the paper, most models ignore supply chain challenges associated with manufacturing energy storage technologies. Identifying the best decarbonization pathways will require consideration of global battery supply chains. A modeler may need to limit the deployment of a particular storage technology in a decarbonization analysis because of volatile supply chains.
The paper also points to a need for model enhancements to ensure that the benefits of the clean energy transition are shared across all segments of the population. Energy storage can potentially promote equity by reducing energy costs in disadvantaged communities and enhancing their resilience during extreme weather.
Originally published on Power Grid.
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