New climate analysis shows increase in heat in coffee-growing regions

An analysis from nonprofit research group Climate Central reports that extreme weather in the bean belt region is partly behind for recent coffee price surges.

The organisation analysed daily temperatures during the past five years – between 2021 to 2025 – to understand how frequently climate change is pushing temperatures past the coffee-harming heat threshold of 30 degrees Celsius in 25 countries across the bean belt.

Temperatures beyond 30 degrees Celsius are extremely harmful for growing Arabica coffee plants, and suboptimal for growing Robusta coffee plants.

The analysis found the top five coffee-producing countries – Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia – now experience coffee-harming heat for more than 144 days of the year on average.

The organisation says the future range for coffee cultivation may migrate due to climate change, as current coffee-growing regions could become too warm over time, especially for heat-sensitive Arabica.

“Regions previously unsuitable for coffee farming, because of elevation and temperatures, may become better-suited in a warming world. While this could open economic opportunities in new areas, it could also result in deforestation as farmers pursue farmland at higher (cooler) elevations suitable for coffee cultivation,” says Climate Central.

The organisation also notes changes to rainfall patterns can further stress coffee plants, and drought conditions can lead to an increase in prices.

“Climate change is coming for our coffee. Nearly every major coffee-producing country is now experiencing more days of extreme heat that can harm coffee plants, reduce yields, and affect quality,” says Dr Kristina Dahl, Climate Central’s Vice President for Science.

Climate Central says sustainable agricultural practices, such as planting a taller tree canopy that shades coffee plants, can help farmers balance productivity with climate resilience.