Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bearish Trend Faces Critical Breakout Test

Natural gas futures daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView

Bearish Structure Remains Intact

Overall, the outlook for natural gas is bearish given the developing downtrend structure and it remains below long-term and intermediate moving averages, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. The expectation is for a bearish continuation unless there is a decisive breakout above the recent lower swing high of $2.89. That high confirmed resistance at a trendline after it had been shown as support in July.

$2.89 Breakout Could Shift Momentum

A decisive bullish reversal signal above $2.89 would trigger the breakout of the four-week consolidation range, setting up a test of key resistance. The lower swing high of $2.98 is an initial upside target but resistance may be seen at the 50-day moving average near $2.96 first. Since the moving average is falling, potential upside from a bottom reversal will narrow as it approaches the $2.89 high.

That average has not yet been tested as resistance since natural gas fell below it on July 9. So, it would fit that it may be tested as resistance before the downtrend continues lower. However, given its declining trajectory, that could happen when the 50-day moving average reaches the top of the bottom consolidation range at $2.89, or nearby.