Natural Gas News: Futures Sink Below 200-Day SMA on Weak Weather and Storage Outlook

Natural gas has broken below key trend support and is now trading decisively under both the 50-day ($3.90) and 200-day ($3.778) moving averages. The market is sitting just above the April low at $3.544—now a key support level. A sustained move below this level could open the door to further downside toward $2.885 or even $2.498. With both moving averages acting as resistance and recent highs near $4.31 and $4.35 proving too strong, momentum has clearly tilted in favor of the bears.

Geopolitical Easing and Supply Resilience Weigh Further

The Israel-Iran ceasefire has reduced risk premiums tied to potential LNG disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for roughly 20% of global LNG traffic. U.S. LNG exports remain firm at 14.7 Bcf/day (+9.2% w/w), but supply confidence remains high. Dry gas output hit 105.9 Bcf/day (+2.9% y/y), while demand slipped to 79.9 Bcf/day. Power generation also fell 3.1% y/y, further dampening domestic consumption.

Short-Term Outlook: Bearish Below Key Technical Resistance

With the market now entrenched below the 200-day moving average and sentiment turning negative on weather and storage, the short-term outlook remains bearish. Unless Thursday’s EIA report surprises with a smaller build or weather re-accelerates demand, rallies are likely to face stiff resistance near $3.78–$3.90. A break below $3.544 would likely accelerate selling.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.