Natural Gas News: Forecast Turns Cautiously Bearish as Market Eyes Late-September Heat

The new minor range is $2.695 to $3.198. Its 50% level at $2.947 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this pivot will determine whether we see a resumption of the short-covering rally, or a retest of $2.695 to $2.647.

Overcoming $3.238 will shift momentum to the upside. This could lead to a test of the 50% level at $3.598, followed by long-term resistance at the 200-day moving average at $3.788.

Late-Season Heat Offers Limited Support

Prices found temporary footing late in the week after forecasts shifted warmer across the South and mid-continent for September 17–21. Weather services including Atmospheric G2 and Vaisala called for above-normal temperatures into late September, suggesting a potential lift in air conditioning demand and power burn.

Still, fundamentals didn’t fully align with the bullish narrative. While U.S. electricity output rose 1.03% year-over-year last week, total Lower-48 gas demand remained weak at 70.3 Bcf/day—down 3.2% y/y—suggesting that even with hotter temperatures, structural demand remains subdued.

Production Strength and LNG Weakness Cap Upside

Supply-side pressure remained the dominant force. U.S. dry gas output hit 108.0 Bcf/day on Friday, up 7.1% from the prior year and near all-time highs. The EIA also revised its 2025 production forecast slightly higher to 106.63 Bcf/day, reflecting confidence in the supply outlook.

Meanwhile, LNG feedgas flows dropped to 14.5 Bcf/day, down 4.7% week-over-week, marking a new three-week low. Seasonal maintenance along the Gulf Coast disrupted pipeline flows and limited near-term export capacity—an increasingly important demand outlet for U.S. gas.