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Natural Gas Demand Growth Seen Leading to ‘Overly Tight’ Conditions in Northwestern Mexico

Natural Gas Intelligence · last updated

Natural gas demand in northwestern Mexico is poised to jump over the coming years, underscoring the need for more pipeline capacity from the Permian Basin to Sonora and Baja California states.

a snapshot of U.S. to Mexico pipeline natural gas flows calculated by NGI

Mexican state power company Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) is expanding its gas-fired generation fleet in the region, while Sempra’s Energía Costa Azul (ECA) Phase 1 LNG re-export terminal is set to begin commercial operations in spring 2026.

Demand growth in the region could “fuel gas-to-gas competition between West Texas, Arizona and California,” Wood Mackenzie analyst Ricardo Falcón told NGI.

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