Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Iran Standoff Keeps Gulf Supply Risk Elevated

Brent crude is currently at $99.51, having bounced once again from $97.24. The bullish momentum is capped, in my opinion, by the bearish bias surrounding the moving averages. Therefore, while price is still above $97.24 and the rising trendline, I view the current price action as a sideways consolidation between $97.24 and the psychological resistance level at $100.23.

A break above $100.23 would open up the $103.62 and $106.15 resistance levels. To the downside, $97.24 would provide support first, and if broken, the rising trendline would come into play at $94.09 and $91.48.

The presence of the Rising Wedge formation between $112.52 and $96.64 gives a bearish bias to the consolidation, therefore I view the consolidation between $97.24 and $100.23 as bearish. Therefore, I would only become bullish if $97.24 was taken out to the downside, and bearish if $100.23 was broken to the upside.