Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Fundamentals Return as Truce Holds — WTI $92 or Brent $104 Next?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Show Signs of Stabilising as Ceasefire Looks Set to Hold

Crude oil benchmarks didn’t get much of a push either way on May 8th, 2026, as it’s now a month since the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire which has so far stuck & there’s been a bit of a return of tanker traffic through the strait. The deal has been chipping away at the risks that really spooked investors back in March & early April – the ones that made prices swing wildly because of world politics – and that’s allowed markets to go back to looking at the stuff that usually matters : how much oil & gas we’re actually using.

WTI and Brent are now being driven much more by normal stuff rather than all the latest news. Production in the US is still strong, the group of oil producers from OPEC and elsewhere (called OPEC+) are tweaking their output a bit, and people are slowly getting back to work in areas where things were disrupted. The global oil stash is no longer running out as fast as it was.