Morgan Stanley lifts Q3 Brent crude oil forecast on geopolitical risk
April 9 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the third quarter of this year by $4 per barrel to $94, citing geopolitical risks.
“That the degree of geopolitical risk in key oil producing regions has increased recently seems clear and uncontroversial,” the bank said in a note dated Monday.
Brent futures rose to just above $90 a barrel on Tuesday after hopes faded that talks between Israel and Hamas would lead to a ceasefire in Gaza amid concerns the lingering conflict could disrupt supply from the key Middle East producing region. O/R
OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, last week kept its oil supply policy unchanged and pressed some countries to increase compliance with output cuts.
Morgan Stanley said that with OPEC supply restraints, some downside to Russia production, and a seasonal upswing in demand ahead, it expects tightness in the second and third quarters.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries may have disrupted more than 15% of Russian capacity, a NATO official said earlier this month.
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey)
Related Knowledge Center: ENERGY BASICS: petroleum
While electric-powered vehicles may be the ride of the future, oil remains at least for now the dominant fuel for transportation around the world. And after a period of time at the end of the 20th century when oil was subject to wide fluctuations in price, new supplies in North America as a result of non-conventional recovery techniques have helped stabilize prices.