More than half of all 'long shot' bets on Polymarket pay off
More than half of “long-shot” bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognised to the security of sensitive information.
Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets—defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defence actions.
That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.
Related Knowledge Center: Prediction markets
Platforms are offering a way for users trade positions — place bets — on a wide range of possible events, and newsrooms are starting to incorporate the data.
As the business rapidly grows, critics and opponents are pushing back. Numerous states have argued that the markets are gambling, and sports gambling in particular is regulated by the state. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, now led by a Trump appointee, disagrees — as did a federal district court judge in a suit involving New Jersey.
Critics see some of the markets as, particularly in the case of military actions, indefensible, and note as well that some large, well-timed bets — “event contracts” — suggest an abuse of insider knowledge of federal actions.