MISSING CONTEXT: Climate change does affect hurricanes

A claim that there is no long-term global trend in hurricane activity because of climate change is MISSING CONTEXT.

The claim posted on X (formerly Twitter) attributed to the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) says a report summarising findings of “key scientific bodies” found no long-term trend in global hurricane activity.

The report does exist and was published on the GWPF website. The report was written by one author, an accountant, who claims to have been writing on climate since 2011. It has not been peer-reviewed, and the UK-based publisher is a noted climate sceptic group (here, here, here, here, here, here, and here).

The assertion that there have been no changes in hurricane activity in the face of escalating global warming and climate change is contradicted by research and credible science bodies.

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone that originates in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. A tropical cyclone is a characteristic rotating weather system of thunderstorms and clouds powered by strong winds.

Should a tropical cyclone originate in the Northwest Pacific, it is called a typhoon. To be classed as a hurricane or typhoon, a tropical cyclone must have wind speeds of 64 knots (120 kilometres per hour).

If a tropical cyclone starts in the South Pacific or Indian Ocean, it is just called a tropical cyclone, no matter how strong the wind is. There are five categories of tropical cyclones, depending on the wind speed.

The report in the claim referred to all tropical cyclones as “hurricanes”. There is evidence of changes for hurricanes as well as tropical cyclones in general.

The United States’ 2014 National Climate Assessment found a “substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s”. This included an increase in intensity, frequency, and duration of hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic.

By 2018, the NCA report found: “Increases in greenhouse gases and decreases in air pollution have contributed to increases in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1970”.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found that hurricane numbers show no trend, but a notable increase in intensity was observed in the North Atlantic.

“Studies generally agree that tropical cyclone intensity has increased around the world over approximately the past 40 years,” the EPA added.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), looking globally, found that the global proportion of very strong tropical cyclones has increased in the last 40 years.

The IPCC adds that there is a high confidence that human-caused climate change increases heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones.

In the near term, the IPCC warns that warming of more than 1.5°C, which has already happened, will have a high confidence of “increased proportion of and peak wind speeds of intense tropical cyclones”.

World Weather Attribution, a global team of scientists focused on examining the impact of climate change on extreme weather, have found global warming’s effect on a number of tropical cyclones.

These include: Tropical Cyclone Batsirai and Tropical Storm Ana which hit Southern Africa in 2022; Super Typhoon Man-Yi in the Philippines in 2024; Hurricane Milton in 2024; Hurricane Helene in 2024; and Typhoon Gaemi in 2024.

Two other studies have also identified climate change and global warming’s role in Hurricane Harvey, a 2017 Atlantic hurricane.

Since there is evidence of changing tropical cyclones and hurricane activity and climate change’s role in it, it is misleading to state that there have been no trend changes in hurricane activity.

PesaCheck has examined a claim that there has been no trend in hurricane activity and finds it to be MISSING CONTEXT.