Michigan’s Polling Mirage
On Monday, less than 24 hours before Michigan Democrats went to the polls, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten told viewers that Abdul El-Sayed was poised to “deliver the biggest blow yet” to the party establishment. His main piece of evidence for the pronouncement was odds from Kalshi, the prediction market, which gave El-Sayed a 98% chance of winning the nomination, “way up like a rocket” from April.
Enten and “CNN News Central” co-anchor Sara Sidner went on to discuss how disruptive a blowout victory would be for Democrats. It would add to the narrative, Enten said, that the party would need “major changes.”
El-Sayed did end up defeating Haley Stevens—by a single percentage point and 15,000 votes, per unofficial results. But the end result was a much different picture than what many reporters and pundits painted going into Tuesday night.
It wasn’t unreasonable for Enten to cite those numbers. Kalshi did not invent those odds out of thin air, even if Enten’s use of them was notable given CNN’s official partnership with the prediction market. (A spokesperson noted that prediction markets “offer just one source of data that journalists can use in telling a story.”) But the Michigan race…
Related Knowledge Center: Polls and polling
Polls are considered essential to the businesses of politics and journalism. What they contribute to the quality of political journalism is subject to debate.
Related Knowledge Center: Democracy and politics
News organizations are scrambling to find a coverage approach that adequately informs the American public about the country’s slide from democracy to authoritarian rule.