Mexico's solar capacity projected tripling to 37.8GW by 2035 as power sector accelerates renewable transition
Mexico is accelerating its solar energy push, with installed photovoltaic capacity projected more than tripling to 37.8GW by 2035, whilst wind power also expands and natural gas remains the system reliability backbone, Mexico Business News reported, citing GlobalData and Ember.
GlobalData estimates solar capacity will grow at approximately 10.7% compound annual growth rate between 2024 and 2035, supported by Mexico’s strong solar resource base, continued utility-scale project development and rapid distributed generation growth.
The findings are detailed in GlobalData’s report, Mexico Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035. The report notes national planning frameworks prioritise long-term capacity additions meeting rising electricity demand from industry, manufacturing and expanding urban centres.
Moreover, analysis by energy experts at Ember indicates the country’s climatic conditions could allow solar energy supplying close to 90% of national electricity demand. According to the report, solar accounted for only 6.6% of Mexico’s electricity generation in 2023. By 2030, however, this source would be key reaching 45% clean electricity share, representing approximately one-fifth of total power generation. Reaching that target would require accelerating solar deployment to approximately 36GW plus 30GWh of battery storage by 2030.
Key recommendations include closing the cost gap through competitive procurement processes, streamlined permitting, expanded transmission infrastructure, attractive financing conditions and stronger domestic supply chains. ‘With the right investment and political support, Mexico can close the gap with global installation costs to unlock its full solar potential and strengthen its energy independence,’ stated Wilmar Suárez, Analyst, Ember. Currently, solar development costs in Mexico are up to 40% higher than in Chile or Brazil, the region’s most advanced solar markets.
GlobalData also noted wind power is expected to contribute significantly to clean energy growth. Onshore wind capacity is projected increasing from approximately 7.8GW in 2024 to roughly 16.5GW by 2035, driven by continued development in high-resource regions such as Oaxaca and Tamaulipas. These projects are supported by mixed investment models involving CFE and private developers. Together, solar and wind are expected accounting for most new clean capacity additions, reshaping Mexico’s generation mix through 2035.
‘The expansion of clean energy in Mexico is being shaped by long-term planning under the National Electricity Sector Strategy 2024-2030 and PLADESE 2025-2039, along with the March 2025 reform to the Electricity Industry Law. These measures strengthen system planning to integrate higher levels of variable generation and reinforce investment incentives through stricter eligibility criteria within the Clean Energy Certificates framework, favouring new clean energy capacity,’ stated Mohammed Ziauddin, Energy Analyst, GlobalData.
Ember highlighted that improving the energy mix with solar power could reduce Mexico’s dependence on gas imports from the United States for power generation by approximately 20%. Suárez warned relying on a single supplier for gas imports is very risky, citing unexpected supply cuts due to environmental or market factors, plus price volatility that can affect the broader economy.
Nonetheless, GlobalData underscores this transition could take some time, as natural gas will continue playing a central role in Mexico’s power system in the near future. In fact, installed gas capacity is projected to increase from 52.7GW in 2024 to 64GW by 2035.
Ongoing investment in combined-cycle plants, pipeline infrastructure, liquefied natural gas terminals and storage facilities reflects the government’s strategy maintaining system reliability and affordability as solar and wind capacity expand.
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