The March of Climate Change
Before jumping to the local forecast, it’s worth looking back at the record-breaking heat wave that expanded across the western and central U.S. during the second half of March. Remarkable warmth spread eastward from southern California to the Mississippi River basin, smashing hundreds of daily and monthly temperature records and helping to fuel several large wildfires over parts of the Great Plains.
The unprecedented early season heat was the result of a sprawling summerlike upper-level ridge that dropped anchor over the Southwest just after mid-month and persisted for a solid 7 to 10 days. Beneath that upper-air ridge, surface temperatures soared, with many areas reporting daytime temperatures some 20° F above the average for the date for a week straight.
Records weren’t just broken — they were shattered. Before this heat wave, for example, Phoenix had reached or exceeded 100° F only once during the month of March (100° F on March 26, 1988). In March 2026, temperatures there hit the century mark on eight straight days, with the mercury maxing out at 105° three afternoons in a row. The average high for March 2026 was a staggering 93° F — some 15 degrees above the long-term average of 78° F. We’re observing climate change in real time.
While much of the country experienced a remarkably warm March, conditions here were much more typical for the season. The combination of winds blowing over the ocean and several shots of cold air from Canada resulted in a chilly month, with temperatures averaging out a touch below the norm. The cold was punctuated by one final shot of Arctic air last weekend, with temperatures on Saturday reaching only 35° F in Provincetown, accompanied by some passing flurries. Then, busy winds relaxed Saturday night, allowing temperatures to drop to the middle 20s on the Outer Cape.
The good news is that March is behind us, and milder times are most certainly ahead. We should get a small taste of that this week. After a gray and chilly Thursday, winds will swing around to the southwest on Friday and persist through the weekend. That southwest wind is going to tap some mild air lurking over the mid-Atlantic and Ohio River basin and pull it northeastward into the region, yielding daytime temperatures in the 50s for the upcoming weekend. If all goes well, we’ll squeeze in a dry weekend, too, as a cold front and its associated wet weather waits until Sunday night or Monday to arrive.