Many Climate Risks Have Been Underestimated By Policymakers, Study Finds

The cooling effects of air pollution could mean many policymakers and financial institutions have underestimated climate risks and their economic impact, according to a new analysis.

The report from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter warns global temperatures are accelerating faster than predicted, driven by a hidden “sunshine” effect created by air pollution which has offset many risk predictions around warming.

It claims many of the current climate risk modes fail to consider the cooling effect of aerosols, which are produced as a side-effect of pollution from fossil fuel burning.

According to the study, without the cooling effects of aerosols, global temperatures would be about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the current increase of 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels observed by scientists.

“It is critically important to recognise that, as air pollution is cleaned up, this may ironically lead to a short-term increase in warming through the loss of aerosol cooling,” the report states.

“The question must be asked, can we afford to lose this cooling and if not, should this be replaced by working with nature, using technology or both?”

Report author Dr. Jesse Abrams, and senior impact fellow at the University of Exeter, said reducing harmful emissions and cleaning the air is not causing global warming, but it is revealing the warming, which was already there, during an online press conference.

Dr. Abrams added as aerosol pollution is reduced, the underlying sensitivity of the climate becomes more visible and apparent.

“We are currently on the brink of passing the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold,” he said. “As it stands, we may have passed it already.

“We have already seen individual years above 1.5 degrees Celsius and they have offered a preview of what is to come, with economic shocks and strains on food, water and insurance systems.”

The study also calls for a “planetary solvency recovery” plan, which includes recognizing how humanity is not separate from nature, and is reliant on it and required to actively steward the planet’s eco-system.

It also calls for targeted action to reduce methane emissions, which it says currently accounts for approximately 30-45% of the current rate of global warming.

The founder and chair of the global Climate Crisis Advisory Group, Sir David King highlighted how tackling methane could be a relatively “quick fix” during the online press conference.

Sir David said if methane emission levels around the world could be reduced by just 30% over the next 10 or 15 years then we would see a drop in the global temperature average.

He added in the U.K, many methane emissions come from old coal mines and could be tackled at a relatively low cost.

“Action is required to radically accelerate societal adaptation to a changing climate, supercharge the pace of the energy transition, and remove excess greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere,” said Sir David.

“Economically, it will be overwhelmingly positive to do so.”

The report also argues emergency measures to halt deforestation could reduce global emissions by up to 4 gigatonnes annually, and protecting and restoring nature should be recognised as a strategic investment opportunity.

The president of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Paul Sweeting said actuaries specialise in understanding and managing risk in a statement.

Sweeting added the stark findings of this report highlight the urgent need to continue working in partnership with policyholders, governments, and scientists to help address the root causes of the climate crisis and safeguard the wellbeing of all communities.

Researchers at the University of Gothenburg recently published a separate study, which found most people believe climate change primarily affects others.

The report examined 83 studies with more than 70,000 people taking part, which found almost two thirds (65%) of participants assessed their own risk of being affected by climate change as lower than that of others.

Magnus Bergquist, a senior lecturer in psychology at the University of Gothenburg, said even when people recognise the real risks posed by climate change, many seem to perceive these risks as primarily affecting others, in a statement.

Berquist added this is a psychological bias that, in the worst case, can slow down both climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.