Low-emission tech take-up is lagging Paris climate targets

Less than 15% of low-emissions technologies required to meet Paris Agreement-aligned targets by 2050 have been deployed, according to new McKinsey research.

Despite all the progress and commitments to decarbonise over the past decade, global emissions have still risen 9% since 2015.

 This growth is largely driven by increasing global energy demand fuelled by population growth, rising industrialisation, growing income levels, and emerging demand sources, such as data centres.

Combining the operational, final investments, and under-construction capacity for each technology in the three key regions (China, US, Europe) suggests that 2030 targets may not be met.

“Even when planned capacity is factored in, which will likely not be operational within the next four-and-a-half years, the 2030 technology targets may still fall short,” it notes.

China has made significant progress with low-carbon tech but McKinsey said it would require 3.4 TW by 2030 and more than 7 TW by 2040.

“Two technologies – green hydrogen and offshore wind – consistently lag behind targets across regions, when looking at [confirmed] projects,” it states.

Globally, green hydrogen development has slowed, with several large-scale projects in Asia, Australia, Europe, and the US being cancelled, postponed, or scaled back.

“This is because of the interplay between elevated production costs, insufficient demand, slow industrial uptake, and constantly evolving regulations,” it adds.

“With the construction time for both these technologies often exceeding five years, the 2030 targets are at risk – even if more planned or announced projects were launched today.”

The paper concludes that it a reversal in policy or accelerated deployment could still be possible, citing the response to Covid-19 and 2008 financial bail-outs, but the timeframe is shortening.

“With only five years until 2030, the urgency is growing. Stakeholders across the value chain can revisit their decarbonisation plans to ensure they are still sufficient to achieve their net zero goals.”