A Look At Scatec (OB:SCATC) Valuation After The Barzalosa Solar Project Milestone

Why the Barzalosa project matters for Scatec

Scatec (OB:SCATC) has reached financial close and started construction on the 130 MWp Barzalosa solar power plant in Colombia, a key reference project within its international build, own, operate model.

The company holds a 65% equity stake alongside Norfund, with senior debt from Colombian lenders, and plans to manage operations, maintenance, and asset management once Barzalosa targets commercial operation in the first half of 2027.

See our latest analysis for Scatec.

At a share price of NOK133.2, Scatec has posted a 14.43% 1 month share price return and 23.45% year to date share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 81.72% and 3 year total shareholder return of 86.99% suggest momentum has been building around projects like Barzalosa and changing expectations about risk and growth potential.

If this kind of renewable build out has your attention, it could be a good moment to scan the wider clean energy value chain through 28 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With Scatec trading at NOK133.2, very close to the NOK129.57 analyst price target and carrying a low value score of 3, you have to ask: is there still upside here, or is future growth already in the price?

Most Popular Narrative: 2.8% Overvalued

With Scatec closing at NOK133.2 against a narrative fair value of NOK129.57, the story centers on whether growth and risk fully justify that small premium.

The market may be overvaluing Scatec due to the expectation that falling renewable technology and battery costs will continually translate into higher margins and rapid capacity additions, however, if technology prices stabilize or supply chain disruptions return, future margin improvement and revenue growth could fall short of expectations.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue trajectory, margin reset, and future earnings multiple sit behind that fair value line? The narrative spells out a detailed growth path, specific profitability compression, and the valuation yardstick analysts think ties it all together.

Result: Fair Value of NOK129.57 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there are still clear risks, including geopolitical and currency shocks in key emerging markets, as well as any policy or PPA setbacks that could unsettle expected cash flows.

Find out about the key risks to this Scatec narrative.

Another View: Market Multiple Sends a Different Signal

The narrative fair value model calls Scatec 2.8% overvalued at NOK129.57, yet the current P/E of 21.8x sits below both the European renewable energy industry at 23.8x and the peer average at 44.3x, while the fair ratio is 42.8x, which points to very different valuation risk. Which signal do you trust?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With sentiment split between a slightly overvalued fair value line and a cheaper looking P/E, this is the moment to move fast: test the numbers yourself, then weigh up the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop with just one company, you limit your options, so give yourself more choice by scanning a wider set of opportunities through targeted stock lists.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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