The Local Impact of the Warming Climate on Spring and the Allergy Season

Meteorological spring began on March 1 and includes the months of March, April and May. So yay, it’s finally spring where we can look forward to the weather gradually warming up, something we all could use after the cold winter we just came through.

But anyone’s that’s lived here for more than a minute knows that early spring in upstate New York and New England often can strongly resemble winter with the potential for considerable snow as well as plenty of cold into late March and sometimes April as well. The first two weeks of March 2023 is a good example of that coming in with 21.5” of snow in the Capital Region, more snow than what fell in January and February combined in that year.

But, with the sun angle getting higher the snow that does fall doesn’t last as long and temperatures do steadily warm. Ultimately it’s the prevailing weather pattern of any particular spring season that governs how much rain or snow falls as well as how warm or cold the season ends up. But, the weather in the spring, just like in all of the seasons, is increasingly influenced by the background climate warming that’s occurring in the global climate system which is being driven largely by carbon emissions into the atmosphere. And although seemingly subtle, and often anecdotally perceived as been chilly and slow starting sometimes, springs here in upstate New York and western New England are getting warmer over time.

Our partners at Climate Central have updated their spring season temperature analyses for 241 cities across the nation, including Albany, and found that of the 241 cities analyzed, 234 of them (97%) have recorded an increase in the average spring season temperature by 2.4 degrees F on average since 1970 with the only pocket of the country that has cooled a bit in the spring centered over the Dakotas.

On average, spring in the Capital Region is now 3.0 degrees F warmer than it was in 1970, which in atmospheric terms, is a big increase in temperature over a very short period of time.

The graph below is the plot of the average spring temperature per year at Albany since 1970 and illustrates considerable variability from year to year. The sharp ups and downs on the graph represent the weather in any given spring with some warm and others cold. The linear trend line on the chart, however, is the more important line illustrating the climate with the upward slope showing how the average spring temperature has climbed over the period. In other words, Albany’s temperature data is showing that colder springs, which we still will have even in a warming world, are trending less cold over time and our milder spring seasons are getting warmer.

Climate Central also looked at the total number of days during the spring season where the daily mean temperature at the 241 cities analyzed was either above average, below average, or average and found that of the 241 cities studied, 236 of them (98%) reported an increase in the number of spring days that were above normal since 1970 with 194 of those cities (80%), including Albany, observing an increase of seven or more warmer than average days in the spring. In fact at Albany, there are now an average of 14 more warmer than typical days in the spring than there were in 1970, which is a significant increase.

Local Impacts Of The Warming Spring Climate

Warm winters and early springs in recent years have wreaked havoc on early flowering trees and shrubs as well as agriculture. March 2012 was particularly damaging, the warmest March on record to date in the Capital Region with a temperature departure of +10.9 degrees F. The anomalous warmth forced the spring bloom a full four to five weeks earlier than typical resulting in apple orchards in full flower by early April. Freezes then followed which damaged or wiped out most of the flowers on the flowering trees and shrubs resulting in serious economic impact to orchard growers locally and across the Northeast with a particularly low apple crop yield that year.

More recently a much warmer than average winter and March in 2016 forced flowering trees and shrubs to again bud out unusually early which made them particularly susceptible to a severe cold snap that hit from April 3rd through the 6th. Temperatures in that stretch dropped into the single digits and teens over a couple of nights. The level and duration of that cold wave severely damage most of the earlier blooming flowering trees and shrubs throughout the region resulting the one of the most colorless and flowerless springs on record. Even daffodils, which are really hardy, were largely taken out along with almost all the forsythia blossoms and the early blooming pjm variety of rhododendrons. Ornamental pear trees, typically spectacular, were flowerless as well as most cherry, crab apple, and apple trees.

And similarly in spring 2023 forsythia and cherry blossoms were again largely taken out after a very mild January had swelled their buds which were then zapped by an early February brief but severe cold snap. It’s a pattern of disappointing springs and sometimes economically damaging that are expected to become increasingly common as the climate continues to warm.

On top of vegetation being more susceptible to damage in the spring, the earlier budding out of not just flowers but also leaves is serving to increase the length of the pollen season as the growing season expands which has obvious adverse affects on so many people, including one in five children, according to Climate Central, with the itchy eye syndrome, sneezing, and wheezing happening more frequently and beginning earlier in the year and then also lasting longer into the fall. In the Capital Region, the growing/allergy season is now on average 25 days longer today than it was in 1970.

And then there’s the bugs, like mosquitoes and ticks, which are having their seasons significantly extended by both warmer winters and springs. This raises the risks for more disease to be spread in the human population due to the longer exposure to the hazards these and other insects can pose.

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts are probabilistic, assigning a probability for above average, below average, or average conditions, depending on forecaster confidence, for the combined three month average of temperature and precipitation over the season. This type of forecast is not designed to pin point the highly variable nature of the weather over the period where extremes from both cold and warmth are likely.

TEMPERATURE - A lean toward warmer than the 1991-2020 thirty year average is favored. This forecast is for the three month, March, April, and May, spring seasonal temperature. The probability for a warmer than average season is forecast at 40-50% which means there are lower probabilities for average to even below average temperatures to occur as well. But the lean as of this forecast issuance (February 20, 2025) is for a warmer than average spring.

PRECIPITATION — Near normal precipitation is favored with a slight lean (33-40%) toward wetter than average in the Adirondacks, western Mohawk valley, and western Catskills.