Living within our limits is the key to civilization’s survival

For reasons that psychologists have yet to explain, there are still people in the world who refuse to accept that global warming is a clear and present danger. Although they are a diminishing minority, climate scientists are still trying to find a way to convince them. 

Maybe a few metaphors will help. 

The first is an insulated blanket. Fossil fuel pollution collects in the atmosphere and envelops the planet, trapping too much of the sun’s heat. As we burn more oil and natural gas, the blanket thickens, trapping more heat at the Earth’s surface and increasing its temperature. Among other undesirable effects, this warming makes weather more violent. 

Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe explains this by comparing the planet to the human body. The Earth is not an inert rock tumbling through space. Scientists debate whether it is a living organism, but it obviously supports life: a complex, interconnected, self-regulating system. Like the human body, this system is both resilient and delicate.  

An increase of just a few degrees in the body’s temperature results in a fever that can be dangerous. A few more degrees can be fatal. On our present course, the planet’s temperature would rise nearly 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures in the next 75 years — over the lifetime of a child born today.  

That may not seem like much for a planet that weighs more than 13 septillion pounds, but our climate doctors say the result would be profound, irreversible, “catastrophic environmental and societal consequences.”

Earlier this year, scientists convened by King’s College London warned that a rise of just 2 degrees Celsius above Earth’s current temperature would triple the areas where heat events are too extreme for human survival. Warming of 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels would make an area the size of the United States unhealthy for young adults, while a fifth of the planet’s landmass would be unfit for people over age 60.  

This has already begun. The Lancet, a respected medical journal, reports that heat-related deaths already average 546,000 annually, up nearly 25 percent since the 1990s.   

Invasive species are another useful metaphor. Because of our sheer numbers (growing by 1.3 million every week) and our insatiable demand for resources (as we confuse quantity with quality), we are the planet’s most dangerous invasive species. Our relationship with the planet should be symbiotic; instead, it’s parasitic.

Our reluctance to accept limits encourages us to transcend them. This is often a good thing, but some limits are non-negotiable. The planet will never produce more water than it has today. Erosion can wash away topsoil in minutes, but it can take 1,000 years to replace just one inch. A healthy planet absorbs and stores as much carbon dioxide as it produces, but fossil fuels have thrown the carbon cycle badly out of balance.

Drug addiction is a fourth applicable metaphor. The developed world has been addicted to fossil fuels for the better part of 150 years. When addicts don’t stop using, they suffer a succession of maladies that ultimately lead to death.  

Fossil fuel addiction, encouraged and supplied by the global oil cartel, produces its own dangerous symptoms. In August, three months before nations gathered in Brazil for their 30th yearly meeting on global warming, scientists from seven nations gave the Earth a physical exam. They found that 22 of the planet’s 34 vital signs are “flashing red.” 

“The consequences of human-driven alterations of the climate are no longer future threats but are here now,” they concluded. “This unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inaction, unsustainable economic systems, and misinformation.”  

In short, our addiction is creating a “fundamentally different planet.” 

Scientists offered several prescriptions, but none as important as retiring fossil fuels from the global energy mix. Solar and wind energy alone could supply nearly 70 percent of the world’s electricity in the next 25 years, they said. Yet the world is generating 30 times more energy from coal, oil and gas than from sunlight and wind. 

Nations promised in 1992 to hold global warming in check; they meet annually to review their results. But it took more than 30 years before they dared to mention fossil fuels in their agreements, and they have yet to create a timetable for retiring them.  

In the “flashing red” report, scientists concluded that these annual conferences are not enough to break the fossil energy addiction. They recommended a massive intervention by the world’s people — “sustained civic engagement” that mobilizes “connection, courage, and collective resolve.” In other words, organizations like 350.org must become an irresistible force.  

Plain truth about our situation is unflattering and deeply inconvenient. But acknowledging it is the first step to global stability and health. Our ability to anticipate the long-term consequences of our actions is the human intellect’s proverbial opposable thumb. We must use it, and “align human civilization with the limits of the Earth’s natural systems.”  

William S. Becker is a former U.S. Department of Energy central regional director who administered energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies programs. He also served as special assistant to the department’s assistant secretary of energy efficiency and renewable energy. Becker is executive director of the Presidential Climate Action Project, a nonpartisan initiative founded in 2007 that works with national thought leaders to develop recommendations for the White House as well as House and Senate committees on climate and energy policies. The project is not affiliated with the White House.