Little change in warming outlook for four years; new 2035 climate targets make no difference

Our analysis shows the Paris Agreement works. We can see the improvements in the global temperature projections over time. Back in 2015, our assessment of existing policies showed the world was on track to around 3.6°C of warming by 2100. Now, ten years later, our latest projections show that this has been reduced by roughly 1°C to around 2.6°C.

The Paris Agreement has reshaped scientific and policy approaches, pushed investment in clean technologies, and driven national reforms that would likely not have happened otherwise.

The most serious concern now is that the progress shown in the first five years after Paris, up until around 2020, has flattened off – just as visible signs of dangerous climate change have emerged vividly around the planet.