Libya — Migration and Climate Change Regional Focus: Western Libya (February 2026)

Western Libya stands at a critical intersection of climatic stress, livelihood fragility, and migration pressure. Remote sensing evidence and field surveys reveal a region experiencing intensifying drought, declining rainfall, rising temperatures, and rapid land-cover degradation—environmental dynamics that are reshaping livelihoods and mobility patterns. From the coastal belt of Tripoli, Zawiya, and Misrata to the semi-arid hinterlands of Al Jabal al Gharbi and Al Margeb, and the arid southwest of Ghadamis and Nalut, the climate gradient defines both opportunity and vulnerability. Rain-fed agriculture and livestock rearing, on which roughly one-fifth of the population depends, are increasingly unsustainable as soil moisture declines, irrigation costs soar, and cropland shrinks. Between 2015 and 2024, cropland and tree cover fell sharply while bare and built-up areas expanded, signs of environmental decline and rural out-migration.

Average annual temperatures have risen by over 1°C since the mid-twentieth century, with land-surface readings now exceeding 42°C in interior zones. Precipitation has fallen to below 0.25 mm/day inland, and more than 68,000 km² of Western Libya are under drought stress. Communities describe failed crops, drying wells, and ‘unbearable’ summer heat. Survey data show that roughly one-third of households have faced multiple climatic hazards within a single year, yet 99 per cent report no early-warning systems, disaster plans, or formal adaptation support. These gaps in awareness and governance magnify social vulnerability: environmental shocks translate directly into livelihood loss, food insecurity, and displacement.

The climate–migration nexus is evident. As agricultural income collapses and water scarcity deepens, rural families move toward urban centres or across borders in search of survival. In Al Jabal al Gharbi and Al Margeb, drought and resource decline have already driven seasonal and permanent migration, especially among youth. Migration thus functions less as planned adaptation and more as a coping mechanism of last resort. Strengthening community preparedness, modernising water management, restoring degraded lands, and integrating migrants into local adaptation planning are urgent priorities. Without such measures, Western Libya risks an escalating cycle of environmental degradation, economic marginalisation, and climate-induced displacement.