Lake Powell runoff to hit record low, putting Arizona's water supplies at risk

The effect of the expected low flow into the river on water users in the seven Colorado River Basin states is unknown now.

That’s because there is a crosscurrent right now of pending proposals and a federal action that could significantly alter how much river water is actually available this year to the cities and farms that use it, including Tucson and Phoenix.

But in general, “it’s going to be awful for the water users in the basin,” Kuhn said.

For one, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation will soon start significantly cutting its annual river water release from Lake Powell at the Arizona-Utah boundary to Lake Mead at the Arizona-Nevada boundary to keep Powell from falling too low.

Second, the states of Arizona, California and Nevada have just this past week proposed to the feds to cut their own uses of the river water by 700,000 to 1 million acre-feet through 2028.

Third, the bureau this summer is also expected to decide on a long-term plan for reducing overall river water use, again to protect Powell and other reservoirs from falling too low.

But if the weather doesn’t improve in the coming year, Kuhn and many other water experts have said that next year, a true water crisis could develop in the basin in which water agencies may have trouble obtaining river water to meet their customers’ demands.

An expected, a record-setting El Niño season this coming fall and winter could improve the basin’s water outlook with heavy storms, but there’s no certainty that will happen, many forecasters have said. The El Niño weather phenomenon, featuring abnormally warm Pacific waters, usually results in wetter winters in the southern U.S.