The Key Climate Trends We’re Following in 2026
Happy New Year (plus one day)! Today’s newsletter is your climate cheat sheet for the rest of the year.
Our reporters share the themes and trends they’re watching in 2026, from a split in the global electric vehicle market to how China will factor climate into its five-year plan. It’s going to be a pivotal year for the climate, so let’s get on with it.
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Expectation setting for 2026
By Lili Pike
The world is now moving into the latter half of a critical decade to fight climate change. Scientists have warned that nations need to cut carbon emissions nearly 50% by 2030 to stave off 1.5C temperature rise.
The world is woefully off track to meet those targets and risks further backsliding, even as there are some surprising sources of progress.
In the US, those tensions are on full display. The future of the energy transition is being shaped by President Donald Trump’s climate policy rollbacks that favor fossil fuels — but also the life support for renewables and batteries paradoxically coming from data center power demand.
China’s role as the world’s biggest emitter and hub for green tech is also affecting efforts to curb carbon pollution. This year, the country will set a new plan laying out how climate fits with its economic ambitions, while its booming clean tech sector is expected to help more developing countries speed up their energy transitions. Here’s a peek at what we’re keeping an eye on next year.
China climate clues
When Chinese officials gather in March for annual legislative meetings, they will approve the country’s next five-year plan. Climate watchers will be looking to see if the plan does anything to speed up the pace of decarbonization after Beijing set what’s widely seen as a conservative 2035 climate target last year.
The key stat to watch for is China’s target for carbon intensity — that is, a measure of how much it emits per unit of GDP. It’s currently off track from its last five-year plan, created in 2020. How much policymakers push to close the gap will be a critical litmus test for China’s climate leadership amid global backpedaling. —Lili Pike
Developing countries’ climate moves
In recent years, there have been breakout climate success stories in developing countries, largely enabled by cheap Chinese clean tech exports. Bangladesh off-grid home solar installations set a record globally, enabling rapid rural electrification. Pakistan’s huge purchase of solar panels and batteries has led the country to abandon natural gas as a strategic fuel. And Ethiopia’s de facto ban on fossil-fuel car imports has led to a surge in electric vehicle sales.
These transitions were largely driven by access to Chinese technology. With the country’s green exports increasing, expect more such stories to emerge in 2026. —Akshat Rathi
Will the AI bubble burst?
Last year began with a crash in AI-related stocks after news of Chinese company DeepSeek’s more efficient models threw a wrench in power demand growth projections. Will there be another “DeepSeek moment” in 2026? That’s a question that’s on investors’ minds, even as money keeps pouring into AI and the energy sector.
Even if models don’t become more efficient, the bubble could burst in other ways. Already, clean energy and real estate developers are sounding the alarm that electric grids, permitting and regulations aren’t keeping up with the pace of interconnection. —Michelle Ma
The EV market splits
The global transition to electric vehicles will fracture in 2026, as EV sales slow in the US and scoot ahead in the rest of the world.
BloombergNEF expects drivers to snap up 16.9 million EVs globally through September. That would be an increase of 16% over the year-earlier period. The tide of affordable and well-reviewed Chinese machines will help drive the uptick in sales, building on 2025’s rise in exports.
The EV outlook is far cloudier in the US, which still largely bars Chinese cars and trucks. BNEF expects US sales to essentially stay level in the first half of the year and dip in the third quarter, in comparison to the market’s record run in August, September and October of this year. —Kyle Stock
The EPA’s biggest attack is coming
A process initiated by the Environmental Protection Agency last summer to unravel the federal government’s authority to regulate greenhouse gases is set to conclude this year. The EPA is expected to finalize the controversial rulemaking that would rollback the so-called endangerment finding and immediately remove greenhouse gas regulations for passenger cars and trucks.
While the administration has rolled back a number of climate rules, this would be the most consequential yet. Any decision to rescind the endangerment finding will undoubtedly be swiftly challenged in the courts, kicking off an epic legal battle that could determine how much the federal government can do to respond to global warming. —Zahra Hirji
Read the full story to see nine more trends to watch, from climate tech investments to what the future holds for nuclear power. Subscribe to Bloomberg News to get access to all our climate and energy reporting.
Pension fund showdown
$42 billion
Three of the New York City’s five pension funds are weighing whether to drop BlackRock’s $42 billion mandate because of the asset manager’s climate policies.
Also on tap for 2026: La Niña
“La Niña is like a traffic cop in the middle of rush hour, aiding the flow of cars or weather systems in certain preferred directions.”
Michelle L’Heureux
Forecaster, US Climate Prediction Center
The natural climate phenomenon is set to reshape weather patterns globally this year and could result in billions of dollars in losses.
This week’s Zero
Kim Stanley Robinson’s life project has been imagining utopias. He’s a science-fiction writer best known in climate circles for writing Ministry For The Future, which depicts a future in which the world grapples with climate change following an extreme heat event that kills millions. Robinson joins Akshat Rathi this week on Zero to discuss how to create better futures and whether it’s right to pursue abundance.
Listen now, and subscribe on Apple, Spotify or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.