Kalshi’s Tarek Mansour Wants to ‘Depolarize the Conversation’

Americans bet on the midterms as prediction markets became a source of news.

In recent months, Americans have wagered more than 1.3 billion dollars on the outcomes of the midterms via Kalshi, the world’s largest prediction market by volume and valuation. Kalshi already symbolized late-stage capitalism’s love affair with sports, but it has increasingly become a source of information—or speculation—about electoral politics, offering a market that priced every campaign event and polling blip. In the Michigan Senate race—which appeared to be among the most hotly contested in the country—Kalshi’s odds predicted a convincing victory for the Democratic candidate, Abdul El-Sayed. (He won, and Kalshi’s overall forecast of a blue tsunami proved accurate.) Adding complexity: Kalshi users are informed by—and its markets shift according to—news reports, but Kalshi also contributes to the news through partnerships with CNN, CNBC, and Fox, which use its numbers as forecasting data points.