‘It’s Really Hard to Give Up That Kind of Money’
Kevin Ortega-Rojas, the creator of Here’s Why, curates political news for hundreds of thousands of people. Lately, he’s had to make tradeoffs between earning trust and earning a living.
When Kevin Ortega‑Rojas, who is thirty-two, posted about a Texas Senate race in February, he knew it could be controversial. On HeresWhyKevin, his largest social media account, he expounds on political news to five hundred thousand Instagram followers. The post was not only about the election; it also speculated on who would win according to bettors on a platform called Kalshi, where people can wager on events. He’d posted about wagers before, but this time the post was a paid partnership with Kalshi.
The comments were swift and unforgiving.
“This should be fucking illegal,” one follower wrote.
“Disappointing,” wrote another.
Related Knowledge Center: Social media
Social media platforms are the source of news for millions of people — and they have a fraught and ever-shifting relationship with the enterprises that provide that news.
The TikTok ban | The Meta-FTC trial
Related Knowledge Center: Prediction markets
Platforms are offering a way for users trade positions — place bets — on a wide range of possible events, and newsrooms are starting to incorporate the data.
As the business rapidly grows, critics and opponents are pushing back. Numerous states have argued that the markets are gambling, and sports gambling in particular is regulated by the state. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, now led by a Trump appointee, disagrees — as did a federal district court judge in a suit involving New Jersey.
Critics see some of the markets as, particularly in the case of military actions, indefensible, and note as well that some large, well-timed bets — “event contracts” — suggest an abuse of insider knowledge of federal actions.