Iran Faces Dwindling Water and Escalating Climate Pressures, Aggravating Displacement Threats - Iran (Islamic ... - ReliefWeb

Iran Faces Dwindling Water and Escalating Climate Pressures, Aggravating Displacement Threats - Iran (Islamic Republic of) | ReliefWeb

By Javid Rostami and Arash Asad Paski

Drought, floods, and extreme weather have had devastating effects on Iran, forcing people to move internally, affecting one of the world’s largest populations of displaced people (mostly Afghans who have sought refuge in the country), and likely propelling emigration. More than 11 million people in Iran were affected by floods from 1980 to 2000. In recent years, tens of thousands of people annually—and as many as 520,000 in the midst of devastating flash floods in 2019—have been displaced internally by natural disasters. In January, the government said that approximately 800,000 Iranians had been internally displaced due issues related to climate change.

Nearly 85 percent of Iran is in an arid or semi-arid zone, meaning that even as millions are confronted by deluges, many also face a lack of water and heightened vulnerability to droughts. Extreme weather such as a paralyzing 2023 heatwave, which led to a two-day nationwide shutdown and a heat index as high as 158 degrees Fahrenheit (70 degrees Celsius), can further aggravate the situation.

It is possible that internal displacement is spurring movement outside Iran, although there is little direct evidence at present. For some Iranians, environmental challenges may provide sufficient reason to migrate, often to destinations in Europe via neighboring Turkey, or elsewhere. This migration may occur in direct response to climatic pressures, such as displacement by flooding. But it may also happen indirectly, through economic forces, with farmers compelled to leave barren lands and herders forced to abandon their life of animal husbandry.

Disputes over dwindling water supplies also sometimes turn into serious conflict and political tensions, as the consequences of drought are magnified by Iran’s swelling population, which has approximately doubled over the last 40 years, to 89 million in 2022. Large protests over water shortages in the southwest province of Khuzestan in mid-2021 may be a sign of things to come, as residents turn their frustration on the government. As more people undertake rural-to-urban migration within the country, residents in Iran’s cities likely will see new arrivals as competition for jobs, housing, and other resources.

Environmental hazards are a problem for many immigrants residing in Iran, large numbers of whom were displaced from Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. Ironically, many of the 3.4 million refugees and other forced migrants in Iran arrived after fleeing conflicts and economic crises that were aggravated by environmental degradation in their own countries. Intense drought and flooding in Afghanistan, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, have contributed to a major and debilitating humanitarian crisis. In Iran, refugees in some settlements faced challenges during the 2023 heatwave, including limited access to water and affordable, nutritious food. Due to restrictions on their mobility, many refugees and other migrants are confined to areas of the country that are the most vulnerable to climate impacts. Efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change have likely been impaired by international sanctions against Iran.

As a result, there will likely be more internal migration within Iran, and, over the long run, a higher likelihood of emigration. This article provides an overview of the major climatic challenges in Iran, their impacts on natives and migrants, and efforts to adapt to those hazards.