Interactive: The pathways to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit

The Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of keeping warming “well below” 2C and aiming to limit it to 1.5C is the global benchmark for climate action.

It was conceived to avoid the worst impacts of global temperature rise and minimise the risks – and costs – of reaching even higher warming levels.

Yet, the world is currently on a path to warming that is double the aspirational 1.5C limit. Continuing mitigation efforts in line with existing climate policies would see a 66% chance of warming reaching 3C this century.

In its 2022 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explored thousands of possible climate futures – including those that do limit warming to 1.5C, both with and without a temporary temperature “overshoot”.

These different modelled pathways provide insights into possible future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and temperature trajectories, depending on the many choices that global society makes.  

The interactive below unpacks what future levels of emissions could mean for global average temperatures, if – or when – the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit might be breached, and, in some cases, by how much and for how long.

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