Insider trading or random guy? It doesn’t matter to Polymarket.
Viral posts claiming to spot insider trading on prediction markets don’t have to be real to be valuable — which may explain why influencers are getting paid to post about them.
In mid-March, conspiracy theories swirled claiming Benjamin Netanyahu had been replaced by an AI clone. Though there was no actual proof that the Israeli Prime Minister had been injured or killed, on X this spurred a flurry of posts promoting prediction markets where people bet on whether he would be out of office by March 31st. One newly created Polymarket account in particular caught the attention of bettors: dududududu22, which had purchased more than $177,000 worth of “Yes” shares at 4.7 cents. Surely, only someone with inside knowledge would take such a risky position?
“This makes him possible to get paid of $3,779,000 in case of win,” a post with a link to the Polymarket profile reads. Notably, the post is marked as a paid partnership.
Related Knowledge Center: Prediction markets
Platforms are offering a way for users trade positions — place bets — on a wide range of possible events, and newsrooms are starting to incorporate the data.
As the business rapidly grows, critics and opponents are pushing back. Numerous states have argued that the markets are gambling, and sports gambling in particular is regulated by the state. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, now led by a Trump appointee, disagrees — as did a federal district court judge in a suit involving New Jersey.
Critics see some of the markets as, particularly in the case of military actions, indefensible, and note as well that some large, well-timed bets — “event contracts” — suggest an abuse of insider knowledge of federal actions.