Important distinctiveness of SSP3–7.0 for use in impact assessments
Important distinctiveness of SSP3-7.0 for use in impact assessments | Nature Climate Change
Recent criticisms have suggested that future emissions are unlikely to lead to the warmest climate scenario available (SSP5–8.5), which has resulted in the second highest scenario (SSP3–7.0) receiving increased attention. The distinctiveness of SSP3–7.0 has not been well recognized, but it is relevant for the proper interpretation of studies that use this scenario.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$209.00 per year
only $17.42 per issue
Rent or buy this article
Prices vary by article type
from$1.95
to$39.95
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Hausfather, Z. et al. Nature 605, 26–29 (2022).
Taylor, K. E. et al. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report (eds Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K. & Meyer, L. A.) (IPCC, 2014).
O’Neill, B. C. et al. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (eds Core Writing Team, Lee, H. & Romero, J.) (IPCC, 2023).
Climate Action Tracker: Warming Projections Global Update—November 2022 https://go.nature.com/47jNhP4(Climate Analytics & NewClimate Institute, 2022).
Hausfather, Z. & Peters, G. P. Nature 577, 618–620 (2020).
Fujimori, S. et al. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 268–283 (2017).
Lund, M. et al. Atmos. Chem. Phys 19, 13827–13839 (2019).
Collins, W. J. et al. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 585–607 (2017).
Popp, A. et al. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 331–345 (2017).
Lawrence, D. M. et al. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 2973–2998 (2016).
Wilcox, L. J. et al. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 20, 11955–11977 (2020).
Shiogama, H. et al. Earth Syst. Dyn. 14, 1107–1124 (2023).
Allen, R. J. et al. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 20, 9641–9663 (2020).
Acknowledgements
This comment was supported by the Advanced Studies of Climate Change Projection (SENTAN, JPMXD0722680395) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan, by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF23S21130 and JPMEERF23S21120) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency and the Ministry of Environment of Japan and by the Sumitomo Electric Industries Group CSR Foundation.
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Supplementary information
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Shiogama, H., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T. et al. Important distinctiveness of SSP3–7.0 for use in impact assessments. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 1276–1278 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01883-2
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01883-2
Related Knowledge Center: Climate economics
Climate change is now a driver of the world’s economy. The impact is profound:
- Catastrophic weather events — hurricanes, floods, droughts, high temperatures — are more frequent and more extreme. The cost can be measured in both the initial damage caused and the longer-term impact on the economy.
- Vulnerable communities are increasing climate-related investments, hardening infrastructure and taking other protective measures.
- Investment in carbon capture and storage technologies is increasingly rapidly.
- Governments are making investments and crafting regulations to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
On top of all of this is the cost of uncertainty. As the Fourth National Climate Assessment, released in 2018 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, says, “The assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid.”