Impact of climate change on everyday weather events - Billings Gazette

Impact of climate change on everyday weather events

Otto

As the climate warms, it increasingly affects our everyday weather. But the impact is not uniform or consistent across the world. In the last decade, enough data, understanding and computing power have developed to allow the scientific community to determine how much the warming climate has affected the weather on a particular day, or over a few days.

Scientists at the World Weather Attribution team pioneered much of this research. Co-founded in 2015 by Dr. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Dr. Friederike Otto, they work with scientists across the world to review high-impact events such as heat waves, heavy rain, fires and droughts to determine how much climate change affected a specific event. Van Oldenborgh died in 2021, and Otto — now based at Imperial College London — has increasingly become the face of the program.

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Using a combination of data from a specific weather event, historical climatology and mathematical simulations of the climate, both before and after the climate began to warm, the team can often determine the influence of the warming climate.

After a significant event, the team examines historical records to see if a similar event has happened in the past. Then, multiple simulations of the climate are examined, representing the atmosphere both with and without the observed warming of the last 50 years.

Sometimes, there is not much signal. But more often, the signal is strong. Most recently in North America, their analysis indicated that the warming climate more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in eastern Canada in 2023. This indicates that the fires were able to spread more rapidly and widely compared to a couple of generations ago, regardless of how they got started.
A person walks along the shore of Lake Michigan on June 27 as the downtown skyline is blanketed in haze from Canadian wildfires in Chicago.

The WWA continues to work to understand the role of climate change in areas outside of North America and Europe, where effects are worse and their impact lingers far longer. A study last month indicated that the recent meteorological drought in the Amazon River Basin is 10 times more likely now in our warmer climate. Worse, the agricultural drought there is now 30 times more likely. These analyses indicate that climate change may not be the root cause of an extreme event, but it does make it far more likely, like loading a pair of six-sided dice toward higher rolls.

On a more regular basis, a similar idea can be applied to daily high and low temperatures. Using all of the historical weather data at a site, scientists can determine the frequency of a particular temperature happening during a specific time of the year. For example, a high temperature of 85 degrees in St. Louis or Washington is common in July. Highs of 65 or 105 are possible, but each is rare.
Jonathan Ciqueira Cavalcante carries water across the dry bed of the Negro River to his house boat, which used to float, during a drought Oct. 16 in Manaus, Amazonas state, Brazil.

But as the climate has warmed, that collection of temperatures is skewing warmer, meaning 105 degrees is becoming more likely and 65 degrees is becoming less likely.

With all of that historical data, scientists can now determine how much more likely a particular temperature is today versus the climate of the 20th century. This is the foundation of the Climate Shift Index developed by the scientific team at Climate Central.

In more recent examples, temperatures on Groundhog Day were above normal from Kansas City to Minnesota. In this particular case, the CSI indicated that those temperatures were 1.5 to 2 times more likely than during the climate of the 20th century.
Higher temperatures become more common, and lower temperatures become less common as the overall climate warms.

And this winter continues the trend. There have been some colder spells, but no part of the United States is having a winter that is colder than average. Most locations from Minnesota to Maine, south to Missouri and Virginia, are having one of their 10 warmest winters on record.

The scientists will certainly stay busy in the years and decades to come.

Sean Sublette is the chief meteorologist for the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Learn more about climate concerns from these two episodes of the Across the Sky podcast

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Winter storm sweeps Northeast, cutting power, closing schools

People cross a street during a winter snow storm in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024.

A pedestrian carries an umbrella while walking through the snow Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024, in Providence, R.I. Parts of the Northeast were hit Tuesday by a snowstorm that canceled flights and schools and prompted warnings for people to stay off the roads, while some areas that anticipated heavy snow were getting less than that as the weather pattern changed.

FILE — Sanitation trucks mounted with snow plows are parked on the west side of Manhattan in New York, Jan. 2, 2014. Parts of the Northeast were preparing Monday, Feb. 12, 2024, for a coastal storm that was expected to pack high winds and dump a foot or more of snow in some areas, leading to school closures, warnings against traveling by road and the possible disruption of flights.

A person cleans off a car during a winter snowstorm in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024.

A person walks during a winter snowstorm in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024.

A person walks during a winter snow storm in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024. Parts of the Northeast were hit Tuesday by a snowstorm that canceled flights and schools and prompted warnings for people to stay off the roads, while some areas that anticipated heavy snow were getting less than that as the weather pattern changed.

People clear a sidewalk during a winter snow storm in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024. Parts of the Northeast were hit Tuesday by a snowstorm that canceled flights and schools and prompted warnings for people to stay off the roads, while some areas that anticipated heavy snow were getting less than that as the weather pattern changed.

People walk during a winter snow storm in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024. Parts of the Northeast were hit Tuesday by a snowstorm that canceled flights and schools and prompted warnings for people to stay off the roads, while some areas that anticipated heavy snow were getting less than that as the weather pattern changed.

A person drives a scooter during a winter snow storm in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024. Parts of the Northeast were hit Tuesday by a snowstorm that canceled flights and schools and prompted warnings for people to stay off the roads, while some areas that anticipated heavy snow were getting less than that as the weather pattern changed.

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Flight cancellations are listed due to inclement weather are shown on an information board at John F. Kennedy International Airport Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024, in New York. Parts of the Northeast were hit Tuesday by a snowstorm that canceled flights and schools and prompted warnings for people to stay off the roads, while some areas that anticipated heavy snow were getting less than that as the weather pattern changed.

Snow covers the windows of a plane that sits at a gate at John F. Kennedy International Airport, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024, in New York.

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Nelson Taylor, of Providence, R.I., left, uses cross-country skis while making his way along a residential street, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024, in Providence. Parts of the Northeast have been hit by a coastal storm that's dumping snow and packing strong winds in some areas, while others aren't getting as much snow as anticipated.

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A worker shovels snow off a sidewalk Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024, in Providence, R.I. Parts of the Northeast were hit Tuesday by a snowstorm that canceled flights and schools and prompted warnings for people to stay off the roads, while some areas that anticipated heavy snow were getting less than that as the weather pattern changed.

People use their snow sled in New York's Central Park Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024, in New York.