Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This study explores the intricate relationship between climate change and human mobility in Jordan, focusing on how climatic stressors influence migration patterns and socioeconomic dynamics. Over the past few decades, Jordan has experienced significant environmental challenges, including rising temperatures, declining rainfall, more frequent heatwaves and prolonged droughts. These shifts have impacted water resources, agricultural productivity and the livelihoods of vulnerable populations. As such, it is critical to identify key drivers of migration, community coping strategies and recommendations for enhancing climate resilience across Jordan’s diverse landscapes.

This study employed a multifaceted research approach combining quantitative and qualitative methods to understand the relationship between climate change and human mobility in Jordan. The study area included Irbid, Ajloun, Mafraq and Jerash. The methods used in this study included secondary data analysis, spatial analysis, key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs).

Secondary data was used to assess climate change impacts on migration patterns, agricultural productivity, water resources and public health. Data from the Jordan Department of Statistics, meteorological records and agrarian reports provided insights into temperature trends, rainfall variability, and the availability and quality of water resources across different regions. This information indicates a possible causal link between climate-induced changes and economic challenges, migration trends and health issues such as vector-borne and waterborne diseases. Additionally, spatial analyses facilitated an understanding of regional disparities in climate impacts, revealing areas with significant water scarcity, declining agricultural productivity and increased vulnerability to natural hazards. Spatial data also helped map migration flows and the socioeconomic variables driving these movements.

Qualitative methods – KIIs and FGDs – were employed to complement the quantitative f indings. The KIIs involved representatives of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), government officials, academia and community leaders, providing insights into the challenges and strategies related to climate change adaptation and migration. These interviews highlighted the perspectives of policymakers and stakeholders on critical issues such as water management, agricultural resilience and human mobility dynamics.

FGDs were conducted with both urban and rural residents, capturing a wide range of experiences and views of diverse demographic groups. A total of 192 participants, including men, women, persons with disabilities and migrants, were engaged in these discussions. The FGDs were designed to identify the primary reasons for migration decisions, communitylevel coping strategies and the extent of government support for climate adaptation. Participants were grouped by age and socioeconomic status to ensure comprehensive insights into community perspectives and resilience mechanisms.