How the Philippines’ rooftop solar surge can flip the energy emergency script
Despite a lack of comprehensive official tracking, independent analysis indicates that rooftop solar capacity in the Philippines has nearly doubled 721 MW in early 2025. While this currently represents just 1% of the country’s theoretical rooftop potential, a massive and unprecedented surge in solar panel imports from China in the first few months of 2026, suggests a major acceleration in upcoming installations.
Rooftop solar was 721 MW in early 2025
The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities has begun tracking rooftop solar via satellites. Their April 2026 update shows a rooftop solar capacity of 721 MW (371 MW in residential, 214 MW in C&I and 136 MW in rooftops over 1 MW). This is based on satellite images up to January 2025, which means it gives few clues about growth in the last 12 months.
The Philippines has no comprehensive official tracking of rooftop solar data. The Department of Energy (DOE) only tracks grid-connected solar. The latest data as of March 2026 showed 3,765 MW, of which 99% is ground-mounted, and only 1% (52 MW) is “behind the meter”.
The Net Metering scheme, administered by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), does not make data publicly available. The last update appears to be from May 2025 with a paltry 157 MW of cumulative net metering capacity. It is hard to know how much residential solar is unregistered. In Pakistan, 85% of rooftop solar is unregistered, as consumers prefer the simplicity of self-consumption to avoid the costs of net metering schemes. In the Philippines, however, unregistered rooftop solar might be much less because stricter system operator enforcement prevents solar panels that export electricity (effectively spinning the meter backwards, meaning residential customers get exports paid at the retail rate).
The ERC does not publish uptake data for the Distributed Energy Resources programme, the net metering-equivalent scheme for industrial and commercial customers.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides an estimate of 200 MW at the end of 2025, which ICSC shows is an understatement.
Rooftop solar has perhaps doubled in 12 months to 2026
Preliminary analysis by Ember suggests rooftop solar may have almost doubled since early 2025.
Ember’s analysis of the Philippines generation data from IEMOP, the electricity market operator, suggests that the country added around 600 MW of rooftop solar from April 2025 to April 2026. Grid generation was much lower year-on-year at midday, when solar generation is at its peak, strongly suggesting growth in rooftop solar.
Therefore, if there were 721 MW at the start of 2025, and 600 MW added since, the Philippines already has around 1,300 MW of rooftop solar installed.
Yet, this is only 1% of the total potential. The ICSC estimates that the total building rooftop area in the Philippines could theoretically support 106,000 MW of solar panels.