How Our Warming Climate is Affecting Spring and the Allergy Season - Updated for 2026

Meteorological spring began on March 1 and includes the months of March, April and May. So yay, it’s finally spring where we can look forward to the weather gradually warming up, something we all could use after the coldest winter in about twelve years here, since the winter of 2014-‘15.

But anyone’s that’s lived here for more than a minute knows that early spring in upstate New York and New England often can strongly resemble winter with the potential for considerable snow as well as plenty of cold into late March and sometimes April as well. The first two weeks of March 2023 is a good example of that coming in with 21.5” of snow in the Capital Region, more snow than what fell in January and February combined in that year.

But, with the sun angle getting higher the snow that does fall doesn’t last long and temperatures do steadily warm. Ultimately it’s the prevailing weather pattern of any particular spring season that governs how much rain or snow falls as well as how warm or cold the season ends up. But, the weather in the spring, just like in all of the seasons, is increasingly influenced by background climate warming that’s occurring in the global climate system which is being driven largely by carbon emissions into the atmosphere. And although seemingly subtle, and often anecdotally perceived as been chilly and slow starting sometimes, springs here in upstate New York and western New England are getting warmer over time.

Our partners at Climate Central have updated their spring season temperature analyses for 241 cities across the nation, including Albany, and found that of the 241 cities analyzed, 236 of them (98%) have observed an increase in the average spring season temperature by 2.6 degrees F since 1970.

And through a new attribution science analysis utilizing Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index tool, it’s being shown that in 235 of the cities studied, at least 50% of the observed spring warming can be directly attributed to human causes since 1970, with almost all of the spring warming attributed to human impacts in 167 of those cities. Only 5 of the cities (2%) studied showed some cooling in the spring.

Secondary drivers of spring warming include natural variability, for example an El Nino, along with other non resolved processes which can include things like weather station relocations.

Climate Central — The change in the average spring temperature across the country since 1970 — updated through 2025

On average, spring in the Capital Region is now 3.1 degrees F warmer than it was in 1970, which in atmospheric terms, is a big increase in temperature over a very short period of time.

The graph below is the plot of the average spring temperature per year at Albany since 1970 and illustrates considerable variability from year to year. The sharp ups and downs on the graph represent the weather in any given spring with some warm and others cold. The linear trend line on the chart, however, illustrates the climate with the upward slope showing how the average spring temperature has climbed over the period. In other words, Albany’s temperature data is showing that colder springs, which we still will have even in a warming world, are trending less cold over time and our milder spring seasons are getting warmer. Albany is one of the cities in the study where it was shown that 100% of the observed warming in the spring since 1970 can be attributed to human causes.

Climate Central — The change in the average spring temperature at Albany since 1970 — updated through 2025

Climate Central also looked at the total number of days during the spring season where the daily mean temperature at the 241 cities analyzed was either above average, below average, or average and found that of the 241 cities studied, 238 of them (99%) reported an increase in the number of spring days that were above normal since 1970 with 203 of those cities (84%), including Albany, observing an increase of seven or more warmer than average days in the spring. In fact at Albany, there are now an average of 15 more warmer than typical days in the spring than there were in 1970, which is a significant increase in the 55 years since 1970.

Climate Central — The change in the number of warmer than average days in the spring at Albany since 1970 — updated through 2025

Local Impacts Of The Warming Spring Climate

Warm winters and early springs in recent years have wreaked havoc on early flowering trees and shrubs as well as agriculture. March 2012 was particularly damaging, the warmest March on record to date in the Capital Region with a temperature departure of +10.9 degrees F. The anomalous warmth forced the spring bloom a full four to five weeks earlier than typical resulting in apple orchards in full flower by early April. Freezes then followed which damaged or wiped out most of the flowers on the flowering trees and shrubs resulting in serious economic impact to orchard growers locally and across the Northeast with a particularly low apple crop yield that year.

More recently a much warmer than average winter and March in 2016 forced flowering trees and shrubs to again bud out unusually early which made them particularly susceptible to a severe cold snap that hit from April 3rd through the 6th. Temperatures in that stretch dropped into the single digits and teens over a couple of nights. The level and duration of that cold wave severely damage most of the earlier blooming flowering trees and shrubs throughout the region resulting the one of the most colorless and flowerless springs on record. Even daffodils, which are really hardy, were largely taken out along with almost all the forsythia blossoms and the early blooming pjm variety of rhododendrons. Ornamental pear trees, typically spectacular, were flowerless as well as most cherry, crab apple, and apple trees.

And similarly in spring 2023 forsythia and cherry blossoms were again largely taken out after a very mild January had swelled their buds which were then zapped by an early February brief but severe cold snap. It’s a pattern of disappointing springs and sometimes economically damaging that are expected to become increasingly common as the climate continues to warm.

On top of vegetation being more susceptible to damage in the spring, the earlier budding out of not just flowers but also leaves is serving to increase the length of the pollen season as the growing season expands which has obvious adverse affects on so many people, including one in five children, according to the CDC, with the itchy eye syndrome, sneezing, and wheezing happening more frequently and beginning earlier in the year and then also lasting longer into the fall.

In the Capital Region, the growing/allergy season is now on average 25 days longer today than it was in 1970. A study published in February 2021 found that human-caused warming was a primary driver of North American pollen seasons lengthening, by 20 days on average, from 1990 to 2018.

Climate Central — The change in length of the growing and allergy season in the Capital Region since 1970 — updated through 2025

Climate Central — Lengthening growing growing and allergy season related to greenhouse gas emissions and subsequent climate warming

Climate Central — Freeze free conditions per year increasing in length nationally — updated through 2025

And then there’s the bugs, like mosquitoes and ticks, which are having their seasons significantly extended by both warmer winters and springs. This raises the risks for more disease to be spread in the human population due to the longer exposure to the hazards these and other insects can pose.

More days with weather favorable for Mosquitoes in the Capital Region — Climate Central