How New York's climate, energy plans would affect households - Buffalo News

How New York's climate, energy plans would affect households
Gov. Kathy Hochul’s ambitious plans to transition the state economy from fossil fuels to electricity have divided New Yorkers, spurred misinformation – and set up major budget battles in the State Senate and Assembly. Hochul wants to phase out fossil fuel use in existing homes, for instance. The Legislature rejected those plans. The poll was commissioned by New Yorkers for Affordable Energy, a coalition of utilities, business groups and labor unions. The poll focused on elements of the state's energy roadmap, which calls for transforming energy use in homes and buildings. The Senate, meanwhile, wants big polluters to help fund New York’s transition to clean energy. Neither the Assembly nor the governor endorsed that plan. With only five days until the April 1 budget deadline, lawmakers are racing to find a compromise on these and other climate issues – all while utility companies and interest groups bombard their constituents with a cacophony of contradicting, and sometimes misleading, information. The debate also comes on the heels of a United Nations report that warned the world will blow past its emissions targets if industrialized nations like the United States do not slash them in half by 2030.

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One thing all parties agree on: The outcome of these budget battles will fundamentally change both the state economy and daily life for millions of New York residents. "We want people to be aware, and we want people to speak out if they’re concerned," said Donna DeCarolis, president of National Fuel's utility business. "And I think they are.” Here is how each of the possible plans would affect your household. Natural gas phaseout Perhaps no other issue has concerned New Yorkers as much as Hochul’s so-called “natural gas ban," which would prohibit the sale of new gas- and oil-powered appliances starting in 2030. After that point, homeowners would have to install an electric heating system, like a heat pump, when their existing equipment breaks. The proposal does not apply to gas stoves, which homeowners with existing gas lines could use indefinitely. But the Senate and Assembly in their respective bills omitted plans for phasing out natural gas in existing homes, which David Bauer, the CEO of National Fuel, called “encouraging" and "an optimistic sign." The removal of the retrofitting requirement in current homes was driven by lawmakers from upstate New York, according to Democratic Assemblywoman Emily Gallagher of Brooklyn. “That was considered a compromise for some of the folks who were more reticent around the electrification,” Gallagher said. “They wanted to see how it went. But I know that they're going to feel really encouraged when they find out how great electric heat and electric equipment are. Then I'm sure we'll be able to move toward that as things progress, if not in this budget.” Gallagher added that she believed “the retrofitting is going to be taken care of in a different bill that hasn't been written yet.” Newly constructed homes in the new Queens Landing subdivision on the border of Lackawanna and West Seneca. The Senate and Assembly in their respective bills have omitted plans for phasing out natural gas in existing homes. Proponents see scores of benefits in all-electric appliances, from induction cook tops to heat pumps. Census data show that nearly 90% of homes in the Buffalo Niagara region are heated with natural gas, which costs less than electricity does. But the latest generation of electric appliances, particularly heat pumps, require far less energy than their gas equivalents, according to calculations by Rewiring America, a national advocacy group that supports electrification. Electric and induction cooktops also address a major concern with gas stoves: Researchers have found their emissions dramatically worsen indoor air quality and increase rates of asthma, especially in children. “All-electric buildings with heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, electric or induction stoves, electric clothes, dryers and all the rest will save New Yorkers money on their monthly bills, just like electric vehicles save at the pump,” said Michael Hernandez, the policy director for Rewiring America’s New York operation. Fuel companies and business groups disagree, arguing a phaseout would drive up homeowner costs. A major complaint leveled by critics of Hochul's plan is that it doesn’t spell out how much a transition from natural gas would cost homeowners, from retrofitting systems to future energy bills. A study prepared for the New York State Association of Realtors by the Rosen Consulting Group said the overall costs to retrofit a typical, existing natural gas-powered single-family home would range from $17,400 to $31,700, including an air source heat pump, water heater, cooktop range, clothes dryer and electrical modifications. Those costs wouldn't hit all at once. They would be incurred as individual appliances are replaced over time, at the end of their lifespan. In her budget proposal released in February, Hochul proposed prohibiting the sale of any new fossil fuel-powered heating equipment – such as oil and gas furnaces – by no later than 2030 for smaller buildings, and no later than 2035 for larger structures. The federal Inflation Reduction Act provides rebates that cover up to 100% of the cost of installing new electric appliances. “The governor and a majority of the Legislature appear to be all too comfortable charging down this road without being able to tell New Yorkers what these changes will cost and what impact they will have on energy reliability,” said Grant Loomis, the Buffalo Niagara Partnership’s vice president of government affairs and economic development. All-electric new-builds Buildings are the largest source of New York’s greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 32% of its total pollution. Both Hochul and the Legislature back plans to mandate all-electric construction for new homes, but on slightly different timelines: the Senate wants small buildings to go electric in 2025, while the Assembly and executive bills make the switch in 2026. All-electric homes trade out gas- or oil-powered appliances for electric or induction cooktops, as well as electric heat pumps, water heaters and clothes dryers. New homes under construction on Big Tree Road in Hamburg. Both Gov. Kathy Hochul and the Legislature back plans to mandate all-electric construction for new homes, but on slightly different timelines.

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SUBSCRIBE: $1 for 3 months "Almost all" affordable housing financed by the state is already built to that standard, said Jolie Milstein, the president and CEO of the New York State Association for Affordable Housing, during a March 20 panel on building electrification. National Fuel has advocated a plan that would keep natural gas in the energy mix, supporting use of hybrid heating and cooling systems that could run on electricity or natural gas. The utility says such systems would be less expensive to install than fully electric systems, and would reduce the cost of building out the electric grid to support an all-electric approach. "Our plan would say that there’s no need for natural gas bans, that natural gas can be part of the long-term solution of the energy complex within New York," Bauer said. Upgrading the electric grid Critics of the plan advanced by Hochul have questioned how the state will be able to dramatically ramp up its supply of electricity to meet the targets, and the cost of doing so. The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state's power grid, calculated that by 2030, about 20 gigawatts of additional renewable power generation – a 54% increase from the state's current generating capacity – must be in service to support the state's energy policy target of 70% renewable generation. And by 2040, between 111 gigawatts and 124 gigawatts of total generating capacity will be needed to support the climate law's mandate of an emissions-free grid, roughly three times the current capacity of 37 gigawatts, according to the New York ISO. Ken Kujawa, National Grid's regional director, said big investments in electric infrastructure will be needed in transmission systems – to connect with renewable sources of energy – and in distribution systems, to connect with customers. The full cost of all those investments in the state's power grid isn't yet known, but there will be an impact on ratepayers down the line. "We anticipate anyone who is going to take electric service – and we continue to see the increase in electrification – it will have an impact on their electric bill," Kujawa said. Proposals from the Legislature and the governor’s office do suggest major initiatives to help defray rising costs. The governor’s plan appropriates $200 million to subsidize electricity for low-income households and $200 million to fund efficiency upgrades – such as new insulation or energy-efficient appliances – to low-income customers. The governor’s plan advocates for the creation of a “cap and invest” program, under which businesses will essentially purchase permission to emit greenhouse gasses above the state-determined threshold. That money will go, in part, toward a $1 billion fund that sends annual rebates to New Yorkers. The Senate also supports a version of that program, but the Assembly does not. Meanwhile, the Senate has also advanced a proposal by state Sen. Liz Krueger that would charge the state’s largest oil and gas producers $30 billion over the next 10 years to compensate for past greenhouse gas emissions. More than a third of that money is earmarked for disadvantaged communities like Buffalo. Solar panels at the Solar Liberty solar facility under construction by Uniland in Lakeside Commerce Park, Friday, March 24, 2023. The Public Service Commission recently authorized four utilities to develop 62 transmission upgrades, at an estimated cost of $4.4 billion, to create greater capacity for clean energy. The PSC estimates National Grid residential customers' rates would rise 3.8% to help pay for those projects, which are designed to help bring power from upstate solar and wind projects to consumers downstate. And those projects represent just a portion of the overall upgrades that would be necessary to achieve the state's goals. Winter storms Less than three months later, the deadly blizzard is informing a fight over the speed and degree of New York's transition from fossil fuels, which currently warm more than 80% of New York homes. Electrification has raised other concerns for consumers, besides personal preferences and utility costs. Many fear that relying on electricity alone will make them more vulnerable in future blizzards, like the one Buffalo experienced last December. National Fuel has also said that building electrification puts “undue risk on consumers” because it’s “prone to disruption by extreme weather events.” More than 100,000 homes and businesses lost power during the December storm – and many of the region's 47 storm fatalities died in freezing houses. The blizzard issue prompted some Western New York lawmakers to oppose the retrofitting measures in the governor’s original budget, limiting electrification to new construction. But environmentalists argue that going electric would protect people from severe winter weather. A forthcoming analysis of the December 2022 blizzard, conducted by the left-leaning think tank Win Climate, argues that storm outages resulted from downed power lines and outdated substations – two issues that the climate plan’s mandated investments in the electric grid would address. Hochul’s proposal would also fund home weatherization upgrades, such as new insulation and sealing, to reduce consumption and keep heat in. The latest generation of high-efficiency heat pumps operate at temperatures as low as minus-11 degrees. The plan does not prevent people from using gas- or propane-powered fireplaces or back-up generators. Advocates also point out that gas furnaces require electricity just as much as heat pumps do. The Win report estimates that only 10% of Buffalo buildings currently use heating systems that can operate in a power outage. “We understand why people are concerned for their safety and want to know that they'll stay warm during a power outage,” Hernandez said. “But it's important to remember that many fossil fuel heating appliances we have in place today rely on electric subsystems.” Electric vehicles All three budget proposals include major investments in electrical vehicle adoption and infrastructure – including a $20 million allocation for electric transit buses. The governor’s plan would also build out the state’s network of charging stations and create a new rebate for the purchase of an electric vehicle, funded by fees on gas vehicle sales. That comes on top of existing state and federal incentives that total in the thousands of dollars. News Albany Bureau Chief Chris Bragg contributed to this report. Tina Kraus reports on latest dire climate report warning of looming global catastrophe and demanding action (3-20-2023)