How El Niño could reshape monsoon season around the world

And El Niño can be influenced by the conditions that came before it. 

“What happened in the winter and into the spring is actually just as important—if not more important—than the monsoon season itself,” says Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. 

The powerful phenomenon brewing in the Pacific could bring food insecurity, drought and fires to places that usually start to see steady rain this time of year. In the American Southwest, which saw a dry and warm winter, the monsoon could still be powerful, with heavy, hazardous rain.

What is a monsoon? 

A monsoon is a seasonal shift in winds that technically occurs in the winter and summer, when temperature differences between the land and the ocean push either rain or dry air to land. The term is most used to refer to summer rainy seasons, when sea air travels inland, condenses, and turns into humidity and persistent rain. 

Most tropical landmasses, including parts of West Africa, East Asia, Australia, and even the American Southwest experience some form of wet monsoon during local summer.