How climate change threatens the economic backbone of the Pacific

Kiribati’s Ministry of Fisheries says that preliminary modelling showed that it “could lose more than $10m in fishing access fees per year” by 2050 if global greenhouse gas emissions remained high.

But, under a best-case analysis of much lower emissions, the Ministry says “no decrease in tuna biomass” is predicted in the country’s EEZ.

Simon Diffey

Yet local fisherman in Kiribati will see a catch decrease under both high and low emission scenarios, according to the Pacific Community.

The Line Islands are set to be the worst affected, with a loss of two-thirds estimated under the low-emission scenario alone. At the same time, Kiribati’s population of around 130,000 is expected to grow, with rapid urbanisation, particularly in the capital Tarawa placing additional strain on already limited land and resources.

There’s also concerns about the reduction in local fish stocks feeding into a growing food security challenge.

With local fish supplies already under pressure, households are becoming more reliant on imported foods. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warns that this shift is increasing costs and reducing nutritional quality, particularly in outer island communities where fish has traditionally been the main source of protein.

According to The Pacific Community, the average person in Kiribati consumes around 100kg of fish a year. This compares with about 9kg in the US, and 22kg in Japan.